Assessing the Impact of the Washington College Grant: Insights from a Longitudinal State Data System

• In Event: From Access to Completion: Causal Evidence from Financial Aid and Transfer Interventions in Higher Education

Abstract

Inequitable access to higher education is driven by socioeconomic inequalities (Wolniak et al., 2016). State aid spending has been found to increase enrollment and degree awards at two-year colleges (Monarrez et al., 2021). While federal funds have taken on a larger portion of funding in recent decades (Pew Charitable Trusts, 2019), states have also increased funding for college systems, with a 4.3% increase in fiscal year 2025 (State Higher Education Executive Officers Association, 2025).

Washington has been a leader in education funding policy. The WA Grant program, implemented in 2019, replaced the State Need Grant and provides guaranteed financial aid for all eligible students. Washington awards the largest amount of grant dollars per undergraduate enrollment in the country (National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs, 2024), with WA Grant being the largest source of need-based state aid (Larson & Lundgren, 2024).

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the WA Grant program in encouraging higher education attendance and retention. The program's impact may depend on the level of assistance provided. WA Grant amounts increase as student family income drops below specific thresholds, with students under 65% of the state’s median family income receiving up to 100% of estimated tuition and materials, while those above 65% receive proportionate funding. WA Grant support is phased out at 100% of median family income, allowing assessment of funding levels across socioeconomic groups.

We use student-level financial assistance and education data to run a regression discontinuity design model. Our sample includes over 20,000 recent graduates who submitted FAFSA applications, spanning three academic years (2020-2023) and four funding thresholds (65%, 70%, 75%, and 100% of median family income).

Specifically, we investigate:

1. 
   

   The extent to which the WA Grant program encourages enrollment and retention, and how this varies across funding levels. We examine WA Grant’s impact on enrollment, retention through two academic years, and academic credits earned.

   
   


2. 
   

   Whether the WA Grant program trades off with other financial assistance programs.

   
   

Our model uses the discontinuity in WA Grant eligibility at each cut point to provide insights into both questions, controlling for student characteristics such as previous performance and socioeconomic status.

While findings are not shared in this submission, we will update our abstract and present them at the conference. We anticipate that our study will have policy implications for Washington and other states. Understanding the impact of guaranteed funding on student decisions to enter higher education can help states calibrate programs towards long-term goals. If funding trades off with other financial assistance sources, it may indicate the need for policy revisions to ensure the program enhances student financial resources rather than merely altering their source.

Authors

• Rebecca M Unterman, MDRC
  Presenting Author

• Howard S. Bloom, MDRC
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Ian Mikkelsen, Washington Student Achievement Council
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Daniel Oliver, WA Student Achievement Council
  Non-Presenting Co-Author