Success at the ballot and abortion policy environment: abortion-related state ballot measures before and after Dobbs

• In Event: Elections, Turnout, and Ballot-Box Policy Making

Abstract

Despite the ubiquity of “direct democracy” approaches in modern policymaking, very little is known about the use of ballot measures in the context of the abortion policy process. We aimed to describe historical patterns of ballot success and contemporaneous state abortion policy environments for post-Roe v. Wade abortion-related ballot measures and how these patterns changed following the 2022 Dobbs decision. We created a dataset of 395 abortion restrictions, including the year of passage, to characterize the abortion policy environment for all abortion-related ballot measures at the time that each measure appeared on the ballot. We compared prevalence of restrictive versus protective measures, policy environments, and success rates before and after Dobbs, and how success differed by measure type. We found that from 1973 to 2024, 62 abortion-related ballot measures appeared on ballots in 29 states: 44 (71.0%) restrictive, 18 (29.0%) protective, although protective measures were more common post-Dobbs (77.8% vs. 9.1%, p< 0.001). Protective measures were more likely to be successful, regardless of time period or policy environment. Pre-Dobbs, the majority of both restrictive (27/40) and protective (3/4) ballot measures occurred in states with one or no existing restrictions, but post-Dobbs most measures occurred in states with more restrictive policy environments. We conclude that while the policy goals and settings for abortion-related ballot measures have shifted in the wake of the Dobbs decision, protective measures remain significantly more likely to succeed.

Author

• Emily Boniface, OHSU-PSU School of Public Health
  Presenting Author