How Low Can You Go? The Impact of Reducing Teacher Licensure Exam Cut Scores

• In Event: Occupational Licensing: Barriers, Competition, and Equity in the Modern Labor Market

Abstract

Teacher quality is a key determinant of student achievement (Coleman, 1968; Rivkin et al., 2005; Rockoff, 2004; Aaronson et al., 2007) and long-term outcomes such as career success (Chetty et al., 2014). Licensure exams are widely used by states as a screening mechanism under the assumption that they predict teaching effectiveness (Council et al., 2001). However, empirical evidence on the predictive validity of these exams is mixed and often limited by data constraints.

Licensure exams may reduce the supply of certified teachers without meaningfully improving quality, particularly in shortage areas such as STEM and special education. These barriers may have become more acute following the COVID-19 pandemic, which contributed to increased teacher turnover (Camp et al., 2023), especially among early-career teachers (Bacher-Hicks et al., 2023). Additionally, licensure tests disproportionately disadvantage candidates of color, who face lower pass rates and are less likely to retake exams (Cowan et al., 2023). In response to these pressures, many states temporarily waived or revised exam requirements during the pandemic (Will, 2022), and several have implemented or are considering permanent changes to their licensure exam policies.

In previous work, we used data from Arkansas and a regression discontinuity design to show that failing a licensure exam on the first attempt does not significantly reduce the likelihood of eventual licensure or employment. We also found that teacher value-added is similar for candidates just below and just above the passing threshold, suggesting that current cut scores may create unnecessary barriers without improving instructional quality.

In 2023, Arkansas lowered its licensure exam cut scores in an effort to broaden access to the teaching profession. Building on our prior work, we will examine how this change affects exam pass rates, the distribution of test scores, and the demographic composition of candidates. Using a difference-in-discontinuity design, we will estimate the impact of this policy shift on licensure, employment, and latent teacher effectiveness as measured by value-added. Our findings will inform ongoing state and national debates about how best to balance teacher supply, quality, and equity in licensure policy.

Author

• Josh B McGee, University of Arkansas
  Presenting Author