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The Effect of Boise vs. Martin on Homelessness in the U.S.

Friday, November 14, 1:45 to 3:15pm, Property: Grand Hyatt Seattle, Floor: 1st Floor/Lobby Level, Room: Princess 1

Abstract

In 2018, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that cities cannot enforce anti-camping ordinances if they do not have enough shelter beds available. This decision was enforced only for the 9 western U.S. states. We analyze the Point in Time Counts across pooled time series data on 317 consolidated Continuums of Care (CoC) from 2007-2024. We use difference-in-difference models to test the effect of the court decision on the logged total, unsheltered and sheltered homeless per 100,000 residents. Our analyses also incorporate CoC-year and state-year varying controls and consider extensive alternative measures of homelessness. The results show a very robust significant positive effect of the court decision on total homelessness. Surprisingly however, there is no association between the court decision and unsheltered homelessness measured a variety of ways, including as a share of total homelessness. Contrary to expectations, the court decision significantly increased sheltered homelessness.

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