Poster #97 - The Impact of Dual Enrollment on Postsecondary Outcomes: Evidence from Kentucky’s Dual Credit Policy

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Prior research has consistently shown college degrees increase one’s earnings and employment (e.g., Jepsen, Troske, & Coomes, 2014; Oreopoulos & Salvanes, 2011). Furthermore, the wage premium associated with college education has seen substantial growth over recent decades (Ma, Pender, & Welch 2019). Over the past two decades, policymakers have initiated policies aimed at improving postsecondary access and degree attainment. One of such initiatives is dual credit or dual enrollment, which generally refers to an opportunity for high school students to enroll in college-level courses and earn college credits. As of 2022, 48 states and the District of Columbia had established state-level dual enrollment policies.

Despite the growing prevalence of dual credit programs, our understanding of their potential to improve postsecondary outcomes remains limited. Most prior studies on dual enrollment rely on ordinary least squares (OLS) regression or propensity score matching to identify the impacts of dual enrollment on postsecondary outcomes. However, these approaches may yield biased estimates due to unobserved differences between students who participate in dual credit programs and those who do not.  Only few studies have employed a quasi-experimental design that offers more robust causal evidence.

To address this gap, we leverage plausibly exogenous changes in dual enrollment participation associated with Kentucky’s statewide dual credit policy. Implemented in 2015, the policy established a 2.5 cumulative GPA threshold for eligibility, which substantially increased the likelihood of dual enrollment participation for students above the cutoff. Importantly, participation did not jump deterministically at the threshold; rather, the policy created a discontinuous increase in the probability of treatment. We exploit this design using a fuzzy difference-in-differences (fuzzy DiD) approach that combines the GPA-based eligibility rule with pre- and post-policy variation. This framework allows us to estimate the causal effects of dual enrollment by comparing changes in outcomes over time for students near the threshold who experienced different policy-induced probabilities of treatment. Our primary outcome of interest is two-year college enrollment within one year of high school graduation.

Our primary data source is Kentucky’s Longitudinal Data System (KLDS), supplemented with the United States Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates to control for other economic or social factors that may influence postsecondary outcomes. The sample for this study includes high school seniors from public schools in Kentucky, spanning the academic years from 2013-14 to 2018-19. This period covers three years before and after the introduction of the dual credit policy, extending to the 2018-2019 academic year for postsecondary enrollment. Findings from this research will shed light on the efficacy of dual credit programs as a strategic tool for improving postsecondary outcomes.

References

Jepsen, C., Troske, K., & Coomes, P. (2014). The labor-market returns to community college degrees, diplomas, and certificates. Journal of Labor Economics, 32(1), 95-121.

Ma, J., Pender, M., & Welch, M. (2019). Education pays 2016: the benefits of higher education for individuals and society. College Board.

Oreopoulos, P., & Salvanes, K. G. (2011). Priceless: the nonpecuniary benefits of schooling. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(1), 159–184.

Authors

• Youngran Kim, Florida State University
  Presenting Author

• Rajeev Darolia, University of Kentucky
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Chuanyi Guo, University of Kentucky
  Non-Presenting Co-Author