Poster #24 - Digging for Conflict Patterns: Understanding the Relationship Between Mining and Conflict in Central Asia’s Ferghana Valley

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

To date, studies that have examined the relationship between mining and conflict have mostly focused on Africa and South America. Less is known about the extent to which the relationships and mechanisms identified in these studies apply to other contexts. As societies begin to shift away from fossil fuels and adopt green energy technologies, increased demand for the critical minerals used in these technologies is projected to soar, potentially expanding mining operations to new areas. This study fills a gap in the mining and conflict literature by focusing on a particularly under-studied region with significant mineral resources in its surrounding mountains and a history of ethnic and border-related disputes: Central Asia’s Ferghana Valley.

Using hexagonal grid cells with an area of approximately 17km2 each, we combine remotely sensed land-use and population data with georeferenced data on mine sites and conflict events for a parallelogram-shaped area that covers the Ferghana Valley and its surrounding mountains. We find that while the magnitude and direction of mining’s effect on local conflict is largely consistent with previous studies, the underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship are likely different for Central Asia compared to other contexts. Specifically, we find suggestive evidence that mining exacerbates conflict through its effect on already-constrained land and water resources and that its impact is particularly pronounced in areas along Ferghana’s complex and contentious borders. We find less evidence that conflict is sensitive to price and that it is being fueled by fighting over the control of mineral resources or disputes over the allocation of mineral rents.

Note: This paper does not include public or formerly public data that was recently embargoed or taken offline.

Author

• Elisa Yoshiara, RAND Corporation
  Presenting Author