Drivers of Homelessness and Drug-Related Health Outcomes in California: Criminal Justice Reforms and Local Factors

• In Event: Evaluating Criminal Legal Reforms and Rollbacks in California

Abstract

California policymakers have ramped up efforts and investments in recent years to combat the state’s homelessness crisis and the intertwined issues of behavioral health, but key questions about what is driving substantial growth throughout the state continue to be debated. Poverty, high housing costs, and lack of treatment options are all likely drivers of these trends, but factors like criminal justice reforms that reduced arrests for drug-related crimes have also been implicated as contributors to rising homelessness.

Over the past decade, several states (e.g. Alaska, Connecticut, Utah, and Oklahoma) have followed California’s lead by enacting policies that reduce arrests and incarceration for drug-related crimes. Passed in 2014, California’s Prop 47 reclassified several drug-related offenses from felonies to misdemeanors and redirected hundreds of millions to fund community-based treatment programs. While reforms did lead to substantial declines in drug-related arrests and incarceration rates, they also sparked backlash in recent years driven in part by concerns they contributed to California’s growing homelessness and addiction crisis. And in the November 2024 election, California voters overwhelmingly decided to roll back key provisions of Prop 47 and increase criminal penalties for certain drug-related offenses.    

It is true that California’s homeless population has increased since then, as have overdose deaths and drug-related ED visits and hospitalizations. However, a more data-driven examination is needed to help policymakers and stakeholders better understand the most salient factors driving increases in people experiencing homelessness and deleterious drug-related outcomes. This study will use publicly-available, county-level panel data for the period from 2005 – 2024  to examine the  extent to which changes in local area (county/region) conditions including housing costs and vacancy rates, low-income levels and unemployment, disability (SSI and SSDI) benefit receipt, incarceration rates, and behavioral health treatment capacity explain rising homelessness across California regions. It will also explore the role criminal justice reforms like Prop 47 played on drug-related outcomes including overdose deaths, hospitalizations for drug-related conditions, and drug treatment program enrollment.

Authors

• Shannon McConville, Public Policy Institute of California
  Presenting Author

• Magnus J Lofstrom, Public Policy Institute of California
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Sean Cremin, Public Policy Institute of California
  Non-Presenting Co-Author