Hurricane Helene and the 2024 Election: Geospatial Analysis of Electoral Disruptions in Hurricane-Affected States

• In Event: Disaster Aid, Equity, and Electoral Disruptions: Analyzing the Impact of Climate Hazards and Government Responses

Abstract

In the weeks leading up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Hurricane Helene caused widespread damage across the southeastern United States, including in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida. The disaster raised urgent concerns about potential disruptions to voting access and electoral participation. While existing research has documented how natural disasters can suppress voter turnout—particularly by damaging infrastructure, displacing residents, and straining local election administration—few studies have examined the role of federal disaster assistance in mitigating such disruptions. This study addresses that gap by examining the relationship between FEMA’s disaster recovery efforts, the severity of disaster impact, and voter turnout in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

Using county- and precinct-level election returns, FEMA disaster assistance records, and individual-level voter file data, this study investigates how the severity of Hurricane Helene and subsequent federal aid were associated with voter turnout in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. We employ spatial analytical techniques, including Geographically Weighted Regression, to assess variation in turnout across counties affected and unaffected by the storm. Our analysis focuses on spatial patterns in 2024 turnout, changes in turnout across time, and the relationship between FEMA aid disbursements and electoral participation. This approach enables us to evaluate the extent to which federal disaster assistance may have mitigated potential declines in voter turnout following a major climate-related event.

Author

• Laura Brugger, Washington University in St. Louis
  Presenting Author