The Effects of California’s New Probation Term Limits on Sentencing and Recidivism Outcomes

• In Event: Evaluating Criminal Legal Reforms and Rollbacks in California

Abstract

Probation terms vary widely across the United States. In recent years, some states have increased terms, while others have taken steps to reduce term length. There is limited evidence to inform policymakers. In January 2021, California implemented AB1950, which limited felony probation terms to two years. This policy change presents the opportunity to leverage a natural policy experiment to evaluate the effects of probation term length on criminal justice outcomes. Using a differences-in-differences model, we compare the change over time in recidivism outcomes for people eligible for AB1950 sentencing to changes for the group that is ineligible for this probation term limit. We also investigate whether limiting probation terms induced a behavior shift in criminal legal systems away from probation sentences and toward prison or jail incarceration sentences.

Author

• Mia Bird, University of California, Berkeley
  Presenting Author