Racial Cumulative Disparities in the Criminal Justice System

• In Event: Lightning Session: Crime, Justice, and Drugs

Abstract

Racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. criminal justice system often emerge at multiple decision points, yet most studies examine these in isolation. This paper analyzes cumulative disadvantage by tracing complete case processing pathways using administrative data from Harris County, Texas. We analyze outcomes for 41,518 individuals arrested in 2017, combining multinomial logistic regressions and nested models with entropy balancing to quantify disparities from arrest through conviction. We find that Black and Latino defendants are significantly less likely than White defendants to follow less punitive paths, such as release on own recognizance and acquittal (e.g., Black: 5.8%, Latino: 4.9%, White: 6.5%), and more likely to be detained and convicted (Black: 15.8%, Latino: 17.5%, White: 13.5%). Nested models show that Latino defendants are 22.2% more likely than Whites to be detained and convicted, and that the direct effects of race account for the majority of disparities in conviction probabilities (e.g., Latino: +4.32 percentage points, Black: +1.75). These results highlight how early disadvantages, such as receiving a bond above the median, increase the likelihood of pretrial detention and conviction, particularly for minority defendants. Our findings underscore the compounding nature of racial disparities in criminal case processing and the structural barriers to equitable justice outcomes.

Author

• Santiago Campos-Rodriguez, University of California, Irvine
  Presenting Author