Poster #79 - Narratives of War and Civilian Harm in Russian -Ukrainian War: Analyzing Propaganda Through Dynamic Topic Modeling

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of state-sponsored propaganda in shaping narratives of war and influencing civilian harm, with a focus on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Using dynamic topic modeling and time-series analysis, I examine over 5,000 textual entries from Russian state media and official government communications between 2022 and 2024. The analysis uncovers key propaganda themes—such as military valor, national threat, and historical revisionism—and tracks how their intensity evolves over time.

By integrating these topic trends with data on civilian casualties from verified conflict monitoring sources, I explore whether and how the rise of particular narratives corresponds with spikes in civilian harm. Employing vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality tests, I assess the temporal relationships between propaganda content and civilian outcomes.

This study contributes to the literature on information warfare and public policy by offering empirical evidence that propaganda is not only a rhetorical tool but may also influence the severity and targeting of violence in armed conflict. The findings highlight the importance of media accountability and provide actionable insights for policymakers working in conflict prevention, information regulation, and international humanitarian law.

Author

• Bakhytzhan Oskeyeva, University of North Carolina, Charlotte
  Presenting Author