Poster #22 - Coping Under Pressure: Shocks, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Rural Honduras

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

This study investigates how exposure to shocks affects food security and migration decisions among rural households in Honduras, using survey data from the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) DIEM survey. I focus on five categories of shocks: climate, agricultural, economic, health, and conflict to explore their differential impacts on households with and without agricultural activity. I first provide descriptive evidence on the prevalence of shocks and coping mechanisms, disaggregated by agricultural engagement. Then how this shocks influence food insecurity, as measured by the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) is examined, and how households respond through coping strategies, particularly those captured by the Livelihood Coping Strategy Index (LCSI).

Regression analyses show that households exposed to multiple shocks, particularly climate-related and food price shocks, report significantly higher levels of food insecurity. While coping strategies vary across households, we find no significant difference in LCSI severity by agricultural status. However, food insecurity and extreme coping are both strong predictors of household migration, indicating that migration functions as a key coping mechanism in the face of sustained livelihood stress. Margins plots reveal that migration probabilities rise sharply with higher FIES and LCSI scores.

These findings highlight the central role of migration in household survival strategies but also the contrasting views of migration decisions. They also emphasize the need for policy responses that strengthen shock resilience and social safety nets, particularly in agricultural communities. This research contributes to the growing literature on the intersections of climate change, food security, and migration, offering micro-level insights into adaptation strategies in one of Central America’s most shock-prone regions.

Author

• Ana G Andino, Duke University
  Presenting Author