Bordering on Effectiveness: The Uneven Impact of Mexico’s Visa Policy on Migration and Tourism

• In Event: International Mobility and Policy Dilemmas: New Insights from Asia and the Americas

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of Mexico’s recent imposition of visa requirements on travelers from Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil on both tourism inflows and irregular border crossings into the United States. The policy was introduced in response to rising numbers of migrants transiting through Mexico to reach the U.S.-Mexico border, and it aimed to better regulate entries from countries associated with increased migration flows. Using variation in the timing and nationality-specific rollout of the policy, we estimate its effects on two outcomes: (i) short-term tourism to Mexico and (ii) U.S. Border Patrol encounters at the southern border. Preliminary results show that the policy significantly reduced travel from Brazil, including tourism. Correspondingly, encounters of Brazilian nationals at the U.S.-Mexico border declined. In contrast, we find no measurable impact on Ecuadorian encounters. Strikingly, encounters involving Venezuelans increased following the policy, likely reflecting the broader humanitarian crisis and limited alternatives for legal mobility. Our findings point to heterogeneous effects of migration enforcement policies, particularly when applied to countries facing distinct economic and political conditions. These results suggest that visa restrictions may deter some flows while displacing others, highlighting the need for more differentiated policy approaches.

Author

• Renan Chicarelli Marques, Duke University
  Presenting Author