Bordering on Effectiveness: The Uneven Impact of Visa Policies

• In Event: International Mobility and Policy Dilemmas: New Insights from Asia and the Americas

Abstract

We study how transit-country visa restrictions reshape international mobility, highlighting the trade-offs they create between reducing irregular migration and sustaining international travel. In 2021, Mexico reinstated a tourist visa requirement for Brazilians, a nationality that was simultaneously a relevant source of irregular migration to the United States and international tourists to Mexico. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the policy reduced Brazilian encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border by more than 75 percent and that the remaining crossings became more concentrated in riskier border sections with higher mortality rates. At the same time, the policy decreased Brazilian tourist arrivals to Mexico by nearly 40 percent. Even under the assumption that all transit migrants previously entered Mexico as "tourists", the impact on legitimate tourism remains of a similar magnitude. These findings show that transit-country visa policies can substantially curb irregular migration to final destination countries. Still, their effectiveness is weaker (by around 30 p.p.) among less risk-averse (male and young) individuals. Crucially, they also reveal sizable unintended consequences for tourism, a sector that represents a major share of Mexico’s GDP, underscoring the costs imposed by the visa.

Authors

• Carlos Brito, University of California, Davis
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Renan Chicarelli Marques, Duke University
  Presenting Author