Poster #20 - Coal Industry Decline and Workforce Adaptation: Insights from a Natural Experiment in Colombia

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Colombia, heavily reliant on oil and coal extraction, faces significant economic challenges due to the global push for sustainable development and climate change mitigation. A projected 50% reduction in fossil fuel production could result in 363,000 to 458,000 job losses by 2030 (Hernandez-Diaz et al., 2024). This vulnerability is compounded by Colombia’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, leading to domestic policies limiting coal production, such as restricting mining license extensions for Cerrejon beyond 2034 (Global Energy Monitor, 2023). Furthermore, global market dynamics, including increased coal supply from Indonesia and reduced European demand, have diminished the profitability of Colombian coal, accelerating company exits (Hernandez-Diaz et al., 2022). Consequently, understanding the short-term impacts of this transition, particularly in coal-dependent regions, is crucial for effective policymaking.

This study analyzes the employment impact of a sudden coal phase-out shock in Colombia’s coal-dependent regions, focusing on the differential effects on men and women following the unexpected 2021 exit of Prodeco, a multinational coal mining company in Cesar (a department in northern Colombia). This event serves as a critical case study for understanding the broader socioeconomic impacts of decarbonization in developing countries. By examining the Prodeco exit, we aim to inform safety network policies and develop strategies to mitigate job losses associated with Colombia’s 2030 decarbonization commitments, ensuring a just and equitable transition for affected communities.

Author

• Tania Camila Lamprea Barragan, University of Maryland
  Presenting Author