Poster #31 - Do risk perceptions drive climate adaptation behaviors among small-scale producers in Nigeria?

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

To what extent do risk perceptions, rather than statistical modeled risk, explain behaviors? In the context of low and middle-income countries, where farming is dominated by small-scale producers (SSP) – that is, farmers tending small amounts of rainfed cropland or livestock—climate risk poses threats to livelihoods given high exposure and vulnerability. Development interventions have therefore focused on promoting adaptation, which involves behavioral changes. A traditional microeconomic framework assumes that SSPs evaluate adaptation choices by comparing the expected utility under adoption of adaptive practices or technologies versus non-adoption (Liu, 2013). In this model, SSPs assess the probability distributions of weather events, potential yield and profit gains, and adoption costs.  While a sizable literature exists on disaster risk perception in high-income countries, especially risk affecting urban communities, the literature on SSPs’ risk perception of chronic and catastrophic climate events remains thin. Even less is known about how SSPs perceive the costs and benefits of moving from the status quo to adopt new practices and technologies. We contribute to the literature by drawing on novel primary data from a structured nationally representative phone survey (n = 750) in Nigeria, the most populous country in sub-Saharan Africa. We complement the quantitative analysis with insights from 20 focus group discussions conducted in 5 enumeration areas across 5 states that capture variations in terms of climate variability, agro-ecologies, and proximity to markets. Our data captures risk perceptions through SSPs’ past experience with and future expectations of climate events, as well as beliefs about their capabilities and vulnerabilities, including control over losses, and attitudes towards the future. We examine the association between these variables, expected costs / benefits of adaptive practices and technologies and SSP take-up. By merging the phone survey data with the nationally representative household survey from which the sample was obtained, we are able to additionally explore differences by gender, agroecological zone, and other socioeconomic factors. We argue that policymakers seeking to introduce and promote adaptive technologies and practices should carefully consider both forecast risk and the factors that influence individuals’ perception of climate risk and understanding of adaptation options. 

Authors

• Rebecca Toole, University of Washington
  Presenting Author

• Didier Yelognisse Alia, University of Washington
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• C. Leigh Anderson, University of Washington
  Non-Presenting Co-Author