Losing the Narrative: A Grounded Theory Analysis of Canada’s Carbon Pricing Messaging

• In Event:  International Insights: Reducing Carbon Emissions

Abstract

On March 14, 2025, due to overwhelming public opposition, the first official act of Canada’s new liberal prime minister, Mark Carney, was to suspend the country's carbon pricing and rebate system. Established in 2019, the program was a success by all conventional standards. According to a report from the Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer, for households in the lower four income quintiles, the average cost of carbon pricing was lower than the rebates households received. Furthermore, the Canadian Climate Institute found that the program reduced carbon emissions by an estimated 8-9%. This study investigates how elements of policy design and messaging contributed to a decline in support for carbon pricing despite clear evidence of its effectiveness and financial benefits.

Drawing from in-depth qualitative interviews with Canadian residents, conducted as part of an ongoing study, as well as analysis of messaging from government, media, and other stakeholders, the emerging grounded theory identifies two principal levers of policy support: policy design and message features. Early interviews suggest that perceptions of fairness and trust are essential in shaping how people evaluate policy design, while awareness and vision are key attributes of effective messaging. These factors appear to motivate and generate optimism toward policy support, although this theorized relationship is still under investigation.

The study is in progress, and the grounded theory will continue to evolve as I use theoretical sampling to refine and validate the initial constructs. This iterative approach allows new data to shape the developing theory, ensuring it reflects the complexity and diversity of community viewpoints. Ultimately, the study aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to build support for climate policies by aligning policy and messaging with public values. By learning from the failings of the Canadian carbon pricing and rebate system, this research lays the foundation for more effective environmental communication strategies.

For a preliminary illustration of the grounded theory, please visit https://tinyurl.com/7hwxn7w5

Author

• Ron Beckstrom, University of Utah
  Presenting Author