Poster #155 - Perceived Social Contract Violations and Voluntary Compliance: Evidence from China’s Personal Pension Reform

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Voluntary compliance is crucial for the effective implementation of social policies. Due to the lack of resources and authority to enforce these policies, governments often rely on measures such as information campaigns, role models, economic incentives, and tax benefits to motivate citizens to engage in voluntary compliance. Unlike other sectors, the emphasis on voluntary compliance in social policy arises from the inherent nature of social policies, which require collective risk-sharing. Social members must actively contribute to building a social protection network and assume responsibility for high-risk groups in society.

Existing research has primarily focused on the impact of trust, legitimacy, and other variables on citizens' voluntary compliance behavior. However, the sources of trust in government and governmental legitimacy are fundamentally rooted in the social contract. Social contract theory, as the foundation of social policies characteristic of welfare states, shapes citizens' perceptions of government policy changes. Social policy fundamentally aims to address and manage societal risks. In the era of risk society 4.0, where risks are uncontrollable, types of risks are rapidly changing, new risks are constantly emerging, and the scope of affected populations is expanding, adaptive and agile social policies must continually evolve in response to the progression of risks. For example, the recent diversification of social policies in China has been aimed at promoting sustainable development for both the nation and society. However, citizens' understanding of social policies does not always align with policy changes and societal transformations. Numerous studies indicate that citizens' self-interest, bounded rationality, and entitlement biases often prevent them from accepting the personal losses caused by social policy changes, leading to perceptions of government violation of the social contract. These perceptions, in turn, influence citizens' willingness to comply with newly implemented social policies.

This study scrapes 78,380 Weibo comments related to personal pension scheme from 2021 to 2025, using large language models to identify comments containing perceptions of social contract violation. Accuracy comparisons between different models and between manually labeled and model-generated results were performed to ensure the reliability of the identification process. The study finds that citizens' perception of the government's violation of the social contract significantly negatively impacts their voluntary compliance behavior. Time-delay perceptions negatively moderate this relationship, such that when citizens realize that pension funds cannot be withdrawn until retirement, their willingness to comply decreases. Additionally, rapid changes in policies related to social security, healthcare, pensions, and fertility negatively influence citizens' voluntary compliance through the perception of social contract violation.

The findings suggest that while governments effectively reform social policies to address societal risks, they should also provide more explanations for the policy goals and allow time for the public to digest these changes. This can increase public support for newly introduced social policies, thereby fostering a positive feedback loop in the social policy system.

Author

• Boyan Liu, Tsinghua University
  Presenting Author