Pathways to Progress: Long-Term Wage Mobility Patterns Among Low-Wage Workers in the U.S.

• In Event: Data in Action: Real-World Case Studies and Partnerships Driving Policy Change

Abstract

Background:

Although low-wage jobs are often framed as entry-level positions or stepping-stones to better opportunities, many workers remain in these roles for extended periods, facing persistent economic hardship. While human capital theory suggests that education and work experience should improve wages, research also highlights the role of job characteristics—such as occupation, industry, and unionization—in shaping upward mobility. Despite these insights, prior studies are limited by short observation windows, binary wage classifications, and event-based methods that overlook the complexity of wage mobility over time. This study addresses these gaps by (1) identifying long-term wage trajectories among workers with low-wage employment experience using sequence analysis and (2) examining how initial circumstances and characteristics shape the likelihood of following each trajectory.

Methods:

This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to track wage and employment patterns from ages 25 to 56 among individuals who earned below the low-wage threshold—defined as two-thirds of the median hourly wage—at least once during the period. Thresholds were calculated using Current Population Survey data. Monthly employment and wage statuses were categorized into seven states: five wage levels (from extremely low to high), unemployment, and not in the labor force. Sequence analysis identified typical wage trajectories, followed by multinomial logistic regression to examine how initial circumstances predict trajectory group membership. Predictors included demographics, education and training, occupation, industry, union status, marital status, parental status, and family background.

Results:

Seven distinct trajectory groups emerged, reflecting varied patterns of wage mobility. The Early Upward Mobility group experienced brief early low-wage employment followed by steady wage growth. The Gradual Wage Growth group also advanced but more slowly, often beginning in mid-career. The Persistent Low-Wage group remained in low-wage jobs over most of their careers. The Low-Wage and Employment Instability group faced frequent transitions between low-wage work, unemployment, and time out of the labor force. The Early Workforce Exit group left the labor force prematurely with limited advancement. The Late-Career Low-Wage group began in higher-paying roles but experienced wage decline later in life. Lastly, the Volatile Mobility group showed unstable, non-linear wage paths, moving up and down over time.

Regression results showed that women and Black workers were more likely to follow persistent low-wage or unstable pathways. Higher education, union jobs, and employment in manufacturing or government sectors at career entry were associated with upward mobility. Early parenthood limited upward mobility for women but was not associated with men’s mobility. Workers from low-income families or with less-educated parents were more likely to follow downward or unstable trajectories.

Discussion:
This study demonstrates that low-wage employment often persists or reoccurs over the life course. While education and training facilitate upward mobility, job quality and structural factors play a crucial role in shaping long-term outcomes. Persistent disparities by gender, race, and family background highlight how early disadvantages can accumulate. These findings underscore the need for policies that improve job quality and expand equitable opportunities for advancement across the labor market.

Author

• Jeehae Kang, University of Illinois
  Presenting Author