Poster #56 - How do PPP policy types affect firms' participation in sustained public service provision?-An ABM-based simulation study

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

This study employs an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach to simulate and analyze the dynamic interaction between government and enterprise actors within Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. It focuses on three key questions: (1) How do public and private agents form cooperative relationships under different policy scenarios? (2) What behavioral factors most significantly influence cooperation willingness and the choice of cooperation modes (e.g., BOT, BOO, TOT)? (3) Which policy design best balances efficiency, fairness, and long-term sustainability?To address these issues, the study combines questionnaire-based data collection with machine learning techniques. Behavioral preferences such as trust levels, risk tolerance, and expected returns are obtained from government and enterprise representatives. These are transformed into agent parameters using clustering and regression algorithms and fed into an ABM platform developed in NetLogo. Three typical policy scenarios—baseline regulation, strong incentive, and collaborative co-governance—are constructed to explore how variations in incentive intensity, communication frequency, and risk-sharing mechanisms affect cooperative outcomes. The model incorporates a HOTCO-based dual-process decision framework, integrating both emotional and rational elements to simulate decision-making in enterprise and government agents. Simulation outputs across multiple iterations are analyzed to identify trends in cooperation rate, preferred partnership modes, and behavioral stability. Sensitivity analysis is further applied to detect key behavioral drivers, such as trust and incentive structures, leading to the formulation of optimized and differentiated policy recommendations. This research advances PPP studies by moving beyond static game-theoretic models, offering a dynamic and heterogeneous framework for understanding public-private interactions and informing evidence-based policy design.

Author

• Hanrui Wu, Sun Yat-sen University
  Presenting Author