Wage Levels and Turnover in the Child Care Workforce: Evidence from Seattle and Washington State

• In Event: Childcare, Work, and Wellbeing: Novel Evidence on Early Investments and Economic Mobility

Abstract

The early care and education (ECE) workforce is critical to child development, family economic stability, and overall economic health, yet faces persistent challenges—including low compensation, high turnover, and labor shortages that threaten program viability and access for families. Nationally and in Washington State, child care workers have among the lowest median wages relative to comparable professions, are disproportionately women and workers of color, and experience consistently higher poverty rates and public assistance reliance than other sectors. Research highlights that low compensation and wage disparities, often along racial and linguistic lines, are major contributors to turnover; for example, ECE centers paying below $10/hour report attrition rates triple those paying $25/hour or more.

This study investigates the relationship between wages and workforce stability in Washington State’s child care sector, with an analytic focus on the effects of local wage ordinances—specifically Seattle’s $15 minimum wage—on tenure, turnover, and wage progression for child care workers. The research further examines how impacts differ by worker demographics, experience, and employer characteristics, and situates Washington’s experience within national workforce, compensation, and policy trends impacting child care accessibility and quality.

We employ a robust, longitudinal, quasi-experimental study leveraging merged administrative data—including unemployment insurance wage records, demographic profiles, and employer characteristics—from 2010 to 2017. Using a a triple difference (difference-in-difference-in-difference) estimation strategy, we compare outcomes for Seattle’s child care workforce pre- and post-policy with cohorts in regions not affected by the minimum wage increase. Multivariate hazard models are used to assess factors associated with job exits and tenure, controlling for key covariates such as pay, hours worked, employer size, nonprofit status, worker age, race/ethnicity, and prior tenure. Subgroup analyses address variation by race, language, and experience level, and descriptive statistics establish baseline demographic and employment characteristics for both workers and employers.

This research provides new, state-specific evidence about how minimum wage increases influence child care workforce retention, earnings progression, and wage equity, filling gaps identified in recent national studies that call for diverse and detailed data on turnover and compensation. By using comprehensive administrative data and rigorous quasi-experimental methods, the study enhances generalizable understanding of policy effects in a sector with high entry and exit rates, especially among lower-paid and less experienced workers.

Our findings will inform state and national debates on strategies to stabilize and professionalize the child care workforce. Early evidence suggests that minimum wage policy, when paired with public investment and attention to subsidy systems, can reduce turnover and strengthen retention, particularly among the most precariously employed workers. However, stabilizing the sector—and thus maintaining access and quality—will require not only wage floors but comprehensive investments in operational funding, career ladders, and benefits.

Author

• Geraldine Germain, University of Washington
  Presenting Author