CTC and EITC Impacts on Child Poverty: NAS Review of Pandemic Policies and Future Options

Session Submission Type: Roundtable

Abstract

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) Committee on Federal Policy Impacts on Child Poverty report will be released in September, 2025. This Roundtable will discuss key finding related to (1) the estimated impacts on child poverty of the pandemic expansions (Joseph Hotz); (2) estimated impacts of a wide range of tax policy alternatives (Maria Cancian); (3) lessons for policy implementation, including findings on take-up, interactions with other pandemic programs, and from engagements with individuals with lived experience (Katherine Michelmore) and (4) lessons for research, including the Committee’s assessment of the state of analysis of labor supply effects of the EITC and CTC, and issues related to poverty measurement (Marianne Bitler). The report, and roundtable presentation, not only review the state of the current policy literature, but also present new microsimulation results supporting an assessment of both the 2021 policy changes (CTC, EITC, and other pandemic proposals), and a large set of alternative policy proposals.  The Roundtable will include short presentations highlighting the key conclusions of the NAS Committee, with substantial time for discussion of the policy implications given current (as of November 2025) tax policy discussions, and implications for policy implementation and research.

The report will be released in September, and we expect the APPAM presentation to be the first national conference presentation of the Committee’s findings. Because the report is currently in review, this proposal cannot include a summary of key findings, but we note the diverse expertise of the Committee, which included: V. Joseph Hotz, Dolores Acevedo-Garcia, Marianne Bitler, Maria Cancian, Indivar Dutta-Gupta, Lisa Gennetian, Bradley Hardy, Harry Holzer, Katherine Michelmore, Robert Moffitt, Angela Rachidi, Marjorie Raynee Sims, Jim Sullivan, Christopher Wimer, Marci Ybarra.

As specified in the Congressional charge and Committee’s Statement of Task, the report addresses (1) the impacts of the federal child tax credit and the earned income tax credit in 2021 on the level of poverty for all U.S. children and the level of poverty for specific populations of U.S. children; (2) how the child tax credit was implemented in 2021, and how the implementation of the program impacted participation and therefore its effectiveness for reducing child poverty; (3) among children in different racial and ethnic origin groups and in immigrant families, and other populations of interest, such as children in urban and rural areas, how the implementation of the child tax credit in 2021 facilitated or reduced program access and therefore its effectiveness for reducing child poverty; and (4) what changes to the tax rules and requirements and the procedures for administering the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, if adopted, would further reduce the number of U.S. children in poverty.

Policy Area

• Family and Child Policy

Secondary Policy Area

• Methods and Tools of Analysis

Moderator

• Bradley Hardy, Georgetown University

Organizer

• Maria Cancian, Georgetown University McCourt School

Speakers

• V. Joseph Hotz, The University of Chicago

• Katherine Michelmore, University of Michigan Ann Arbor

• Marianne Bitler, University of California, Davis

• Maria Cancian, Georgetown University McCourt School