Informing Disaster Risk Management: Analyses of Forecasting, Short-term Displacement, Public Disaster Assistance, and Long-term Relocation

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

As climate change accelerates the frequency and severity of natural disasters, communities and government must rethink preparedness, response, and recovery strategies to more efficiently and equitably address disaster aftereffects. This panel presents four empirical studies that examine the policies, systems, and behaviors shaping disaster outcomes from pre-event forecasting to short-term displacement, aid allocation, and long-term relocation. Specifically, these studies offer a multidimensional perspective of how forecasting, market mechanisms, governance, and relocation policy intersect to shape both immediate and future resilience.

The first paper evaluates the economic and societal benefits of improved hurricane forecasting in the United States. It shows that better forecasts drive protective behaviors and reduce damage costs. This study demonstrates the important social value of investing in forecast infrastructure, not only for immediate preparedness but also as a foundation for more resilient long-term planning. The second paper, in the context of wildfire-induced displacement, investigates the role of the sharing economy—specifically Airbnb—in providing short-term shelter to evacuees in the Los Angeles area. It demonstrates that home-sharing platforms can significantly mitigate welfare losses from displacement, with a notable contribution from altruistic hosts. This work underscores the value of integrating flexible, community-based housing networks into preparedness plans, while also emphasizing the need for targeted platform design to ensure equitable access for displaced populations. The third study explores federal disaster aid allocation, evaluating how political dynamics influence the fairness and efficiency of Public Assistance program of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). By distinguishing between FEMA-led technical assessments and politically driven aid allocation decisions, the research reveals that while damage evaluations are unbiased, oversight committee member party alignment influences the actual aid distribution. This finding underscores a critical policy gap between need-based assessment and political bias—calling for greater transparency and accountability in federal disaster response. The final paper focuses on the long-term implications of federal government-funded property buyouts in flood-prone areas in Harris county, Texas. While these programs reduce immediate exposure by turning vulnerable parcels into open space, the study reveals that many participants relocate to areas projected to become high-risk under future flood scenarios. The analysis highlights the unintended consequence of risk redistribution, driven by the use of outdated static floodplain maps. The findings call for a more forward-looking approach for disaster risk management that incorporates evolving flood risk conditions and projections. 

Collectively, these studies illuminate a critical continuum in disaster planning and response—beginning with accurate early-warning and forecasting systems, extending through short-term displacement support, disaster public assistance for impacted communities, and culminating in long-term recovery and relocation. Each case study sheds light on essential yet often fragmented aspects of disaster management. They expose persistent gaps in how we prepare for and respond to disaster events: the limited integration of forecasting tools into long-range resilience planning, inequities in access to emergency resources like temporary shelter and public assistance, and a failure to account for future risk trajectories in relocation strategies. Taken together, they offer a roadmap for transforming disaster policy and practice. 

Policy Area

• Natural Resource, Energy, and Environmental Policy

Secondary Policy Area

• Housing, Community Development, and Urban Policy

Chair

• Lily Hsueh, Arizona State University

Discussants

• Qing Miao, Rochester Institute of Technology

• Noah Dormady, The Ohio State University

Organizer

• Meri Davlasheridze, Texas A&M University

Individual Presentations

• The Social Value of Forecasting Hurricanes - Presenting Author: Renato Molina, University of Miami

• Sharing Economy as Disaster Remedy: The Case of Airbnb - Presenting Author: Wei GUO, University of California, Riverside

• Political Bias in Disaster Aid: Evidence from Administrative Data and from Space - Presenting Author: Hannah Farkas, Columbia University

• Flood Vulnerability Implications of an “Unmanaged” Relocation of Property Buyout Participants: Case of Harris County, TX - Presenting Author: Meri Davlasheridze, Texas A&M University