Crisis and Change: How Environmental Shocks Reshape Policy, Labor, and Land

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Environmental shocks—from wildfires and earthquakes to mining disasters—are becoming increasingly common and consequential, posing acute challenges to both governance systems and policy resilience. This interdisciplinary panel explores how societies respond to such shocks through shifts in political preferences, economic behavior, and land use. The four papers in our panel use innovative spatial datasets, survey experiments, and/or panel datasets to draw new inferences about how disasters affect policy, labor, and land use. Collectively, the panel investigates how extreme events catalyze new policy landscapes and create opportunities for transformative change.

The four papers collectively examine the political, economic, and institutional consequences of environmental disasters across different sectors and geographic contexts. Each paper offers empirically grounded insights into how crises can expose underlying vulnerabilities—and, crucially, how they can also open up space for the transformative and resilient policy solutions highlighted in this year’s APPAM theme.

The first paper, presented by Liz Baldwin, uses a survey experiment to analyze how wildfire evacuation affects peoples’ political attitudes and policy preferences for wildfire mitigation policies, and whether these effects persist or diminish over time. This work contributes to understanding how personal risk perception intersects with political behavior, with implications for how governments can build coalitions around proactive climate adaptation strategies.

The second paper, presented by Wei Guo, focuses on the economic dimension of wildfire by investigating its impact on green investments. Guo and colleagues leverage historic spatial data on wildfire perimeters to examine how wildfires affect cities’ investment in green infrastructure. The paper highlights the dynamic interplay between environmental shocks and capital allocation, pointing to both barriers and opportunities in aligning green investments with climate-resilient development.

The third paper, presented by Rafael Ribas, examines the indirect labor market consequences of a mining disaster in an area of Brazil with insufficient enforcement of mining regulations. His research combines labor market data and georeferenced mine locations to compare the local labor market outcomes at low risk of mining disasters with upstream, higher-risk neighbors. The findings show how such events disproportionately impact vulnerable populations where worker mobility is limited. Ribas’s work emphasizes the importance of inclusive recovery strategies and labor-focused policy design in the aftermath of environmental disasters.

Finally, the fourth paper, presented by Youpei Yan, investigates how seismic shocks influence land use changes in Nepal. Leveraging geospatial remote sensing data, Yan analyzes how land use patterns changed among 3,983 villages before and after a major 2015 earthquake in Nepal. The research underscores the role of institutional flexibility and community engagement in facilitating post-crisis land management that balances safety, livelihoods, and sustainability.

Together, these papers provide a rich comparative perspective on the effects of environmental shocks across political, economic, and spatial systems. By foregrounding empirical evidence and cross-disciplinary collaboration, the panel speaks directly to the conference theme of forging partnerships for transformative and resilient policy solutions. Each contribution sheds light on not only how disasters disrupt, but how they can also catalyze shifts toward more equitable, adaptive, and forward-looking governance.

Policy Area

• Natural Resource, Energy, and Environmental Policy

Chair

• Lily Hsueh, Arizona State University

Discussant

• Meri Davlasheridze, Texas A&M University

Organizer

• Elizabeth Baldwin, University of Arizona

Individual Presentations

• Burning Down the House: How Exposure to Wildfire Affects Support for Wildfire Mitigation Policies - Presenting Author: Elizabeth Baldwin, University of Arizona

• Sustainable Investment Under Climate Risk: Evidence from California Wildfires - Presenting Author: Wei GUO, University of California, Riverside

• The Unequal Impact of Public Mistrust in Labor Markets: Evidence from an Environmental Disaster - Non-Presenting Co-Author: Philipp Ehrl, Getulio Vargas Foundation; Presenting Author: Rafael P. Ribas, Boise State University

• Natural Disasters and Land Use Dynamics: Evidence from Earthquake-Induced Deforestation - Presenting Author: Youpei Yan; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Jayash Paudel, University of Massachusetts at Amherst