Transit Migration in Mexico: Evidence from The Beast

• In Event: Migration & Population Issues in International Contexts

Abstract

This dissertation examines the spillover effects of transit migration on local crime patterns in Mexican municipalities along Central American migration routes to the U.S. border. While existing migration economics literature predominantly focuses on costs and benefits in destination countries, this research provides novel evidence on the economic and social impacts borne by transit countries—specifically Mexico, which serves as a critical corridor for Central American migrants traveling via freight train networks like "La Bestia." Understanding these effects is crucial for comprehensive migration policy analysis, as transit countries bear substantial costs that are often overlooked in policy debates focused on destination countries. Using shift-share instrumental variables methodology, I exploit exogenous variation in transit migration exposure across Mexican municipalities from 1990-2025. The empirical strategy leverages historical train route accessibility and migration patterns as instruments for contemporary transit flows, addressing endogeneity concerns inherent in migration-crime research. This approach combines spatial economics, migration studies, and criminology frameworks to identify causal effects of transit migration on local communities. I combine comprehensive datasets including ENVIPE victimization surveys (2011-2025) and its predecessor ENSI (2002-2010), INEGI census data, EMIF Sur migration surveys, SESNSP administrative crime records, and CONEVAL poverty data to construct municipality-level panel data spanning over three decades. This rich data infrastructure enables analysis of both short-term and long-term effects across diverse geographic and demographic contexts. Given that standard household surveys cannot directly capture crimes against transit migrants due to sampling limitations—migrants in transit are not included in household sampling frames—I focus on spillover effects to local populations. The analysis examines various crime categories including property crime, violent crime, and extortion. Extortion serves as a particularly informative proxy for organized crime presence, as it increased significantly during peak migration periods when criminal organizations intensified their exploitation of migration corridors. I employ ecological indicators such as migrant shelter locations and train route networks to measure migration intensity, combining these with survey-based victimization data to estimate effects on local crime rates. The methodology accounts for Mexico's substantial underreporting of crime (the "cifra negra"), municipal boundary changes across census periods, and proper application of survey expansion factors for population-representative estimates. This research contributes to understanding how temporary migration flows create economic spillovers through local service demand while potentially increasing crime victimization in transit communities. The findings reveal important heterogeneity across crime types, organized crime presence, and municipal characteristics. These results have significant policy implications for Mexican municipalities managing migration corridors, regional cooperation on migration management, and U.S. immigration policy that shapes migration patterns through neighboring countries.

Author

• Brenda Teruya
  Presenting Author