Poster #96 - Reconfigured Dependency: External Patronage, Sovereignty Claims, and Donor Strategy in Burkina Faso

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

For decades, Francophone African states remained locked in “Françafrique” relationships characterized by French security, economic and financial dominance. In 2022–2023, Burkina Faso under Captain Ibrahim Traoré terminated defense agreements with France and expelled French forces, framing this as “second decolonization.” This paper asks a central policy question: Does this break represent genuine autonomy gains, or primarily a reorientation of external dependency toward new patrons such as Russia and other non‑Western states?To address this question, the study develops a Dependency Index (2015–2025) that combines three normalized dimensions: (1) security reliance (troop presence, arms imports, defense agreements); (2) economic concentration (trade shares, mining contracts); and (3) financial dependence (official development assistance composition, bilateral credit terms). Using quantitative data from SIPRI, UN Comtrade, and OECD/World Bank sources, the analysis documents a “Scissor Effect”: as French security and financial presence declines to near zero after 2023, Russian and other non‑Western engagement surges, keeping aggregate dependency high on a 0–1 scale.The research design pairs this index with qualitative evidence from policy documents and secondary reports to interpret how these shifts affect state capacity in core social sectors. Three main findings emerge. First, resource‑nationalist rhetoric masks continued reliance on opaque bilateral loans with uncertain conditionalities. Second, the withdrawal of traditional budget support, particularly from the World Bank and European partners, has been only partially offset by domestic “patriotic” fundraising, generating fiscal vulnerability. Third, health and education sectors experience funding volatility and weakened implementation capacity as external partnerships become more fragmented and security‑driven.The analysis yields direct implications for multilateral institutions, bilateral donors, and regional organizations. Reducing dependency requires transparent, demand‑driven partnerships that strengthen—rather than substitute for—domestic bureaucratic autonomy and planning capacity. Donor “competition” for influence in fragile states risks reproducing hierarchical relationships rebranded as “multipolar engagement.” The Dependency Index is designed to be replicable across Mali, Niger, and other Sahelian states, enabling systematic comparison of “second decolonization” strategies and their actual effects on policy autonomy, service delivery, and development outcomes.

Keywords: Burkina Faso; dependency index; external patronage; public administration; second decolonization; Sahel

Author

• Dr Chinyere Ogbonna-McGruder, Austin Peay State University
  Presenting Author