Powering subnational energy transitions: Understanding the spatial and policy drivers drivers of renewables diffusion

• In Event: Designing for Diffusion: Opportunities and Barriers in Energy Transition

Abstract

The United States recently reached a historic milestone where fossil fuels supplied less than half of domestic electricity generation for the first time in March 2025. However, this aggregate national shift masks significant local-level variance in how "green transitions" actually manifest. While existing literature has identified cross-sectional drivers of renewable energy siting, there is a critical gap in understanding the temporal and spatial dynamics of the transition—specifically whether the same factors that encourage renewable growth also explain the persistence of fossil fuel infrastructure.This research investigates the local factors—including climate beliefs, state and local policy, and civic capacity—that drive the energy transition within U.S. locales over time. We specifically address a paradox identified in recent studies: higher civic capacity (characterized by high educational attainment and nonprofit density) can lead to lower solar capacity as knowledgeable communities effectively organize to oppose local projects. Our primary research question asks how these socio-political factors impact the renewable energy share of total power generation within census tracts in a longitudinal sense, rather than a single point in time. We utilize a comprehensive panel dataset of approximately 1.3 terawatts of existing and planned renewable and non-renewable power projects. This data, obtained from Cleanview and cleaned EIA records, allows for a granular analysis of power plant capacities (MW) across all technology categories. Methodologically, we employ a panel analysis to test the robustness of factors like State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), local solar ordinances, and localized climate change belief scores. We further apply OLS estimates and Moran’s I tests to account for spatial autocorrelation and clustering. Preliminary findings indicate that renewable energy projects exhibit strong spatial clustering, with new facilities increasingly likely to be established within 25km of an "origin" plant. This suggests that local experience and existing infrastructure are primary catalysts for diffusion. Furthermore, while capacity is increasing, actual generation-based green energy mixes vary significantly; for example, states like Texas remain net exporters of natural gas despite high renewable capacity additions. This research advances critical energy policy research at the subnational level, as it identifies the "stickiness" of fossil fuel infrastructure and the specific social barriers that cause renewable project cancellations. By understanding these spatial and temporal patterns, planners can better design incentives and permitting processes that mitigate "energy privilege" and ensure a more equitable national transition from the bottom-up.

Author

• Benjamin Leffel, University of Nevada - Las Vegas
  Presenting Author