Flying Blind: Bottlenecks in Sustainable Aviation

• In Event: Energy Transition: Implementation and Outcomes Across the States and around the Globe

Abstract

The civil aviation industry is responsible for about 2.5% of global carbon emissions, making passenger and cargo airlines the subject of much policy and stakeholder pressures to decarbonize and mitigate climate change. Many airlines have pledged to reduce their carbon footprints to align with the Paris Accords. But to what extent do their emissions targets translate to real changes in practices and emissions? This study aims to understand the extent to which airline decarbonization strategies align policy, practice, and outcomes by examining patterns in stated emissions targets, observable technology transitions, and measured emissions reductions within and across companies. To do so, we adopt a decoupling lens to inductively explore differences between airline policy versus practice, and between the means versus ends of decarbonization efforts.  

Empirically, we deploy both inductive and deductive analysis in a comparative case study of 25 major airlines representing the majority of airmiles flown in the passenger and cargo sectors. We draw on public data from company sustainability reports, press releases, and financial reports to produce a nuanced description of diverse airline decarbonization strategies. Our case summaries identify widespread gaps both between policy and practice (claiming more action than what is undertaken) and between means and ends (acting through practices that don’t achieve the desired outcome). We leverage necessary condition analysis to explore potential explanations for differences across cases.  

Our findings suggest that most decoupling occurs due to the opaque choices airlines face when exploring new technologies available that may support decarbonization, limiting outcomes even when airlines substantively adopt best practices. However, we also identify several conditions that may foster more substantive decarbonization results—or serve as bottlenecks limiting achievement for those that do not meet these conditions. We highlight the roles of managerial agency, trade association membership, firm reputation, and long-term orientation as key factors that help prevent decoupling and foster more effective practices. Our discussion leverages these findings to induce propositions for understanding organizations’ behavior under deep uncertainty.

Author

• Olivia Guarinello, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Presenting Author