Under what conditions are long-term goals achieved? A configuration analysis of energy transition policies

• In Event: Energy Transition: Implementation and Outcomes Across the States and around the Globe

Abstract

Governments increasingly face long-term policy challenges such as climate change, energy transition, and demographic aging, yet the conditions under which these long-term goals can be successfully achieved remain underexplored. Existing research identifies a range of design- and implementation-related factors that shape policy outcomes, but pays limited attention to whether and how these factors interact in the pursuit of long-term goals. This gap matters because long- term goals differ from short-term ones: they unfold across multiple electoral and budgetary cycles, involve greater uncertainty, and require sustained political and administrative commitment. This paper addresses this limitation by examining how combinations of policy design and implementation conditions contribute to long-term goal achievement.

We develop a configurational framework centered on four conditions. Two relate to policy design: traceable task design, defined as the clear assignment of implementation responsibility to specific actors, and intermediate goal design, defined as the inclusion of sequential milestones linking short-term actions to long-term objectives. Two relate to implementation capacity: tactical implementation, referring to the extent to which subsequent policies operationalize and support the focal strategy, and political tenure, capturing leadership continuity over time. Together, these conditions reflect whether a long-term policy provides clear responsibility, credible milestones, sustained operational follow-up, and stable political support.

We examine these conditions in the context of China’s energy transition, a long-term governance challenge characterized by deep structural change and relatively observable performance outcomes. Empirically, we analyze 53 provincial energy transition policies issued between 2002 and 2021, all of which had completed their goal periods by the end of 2025. Long-term goal achievement is measured as the proportion of evaluation-oriented goals achieved. Methodologically, we employ fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), which is well suited to identifying causal complexity and multiple pathways to the same outcome.

The findings show that no single condition is necessary for long-term goal achievement. Instead, outcomes arise from several distinct but functionally equivalent configurations. We identify three main pathways. First, a design-oriented pathway combines traceable task design and intermediate goal design, indicating that clear responsibility and structured milestones enhance the likelihood of success. Second, an implementation-oriented pathway shows that achievement can emerge either from longer political tenure, which sustains continuity and strategic attention, or from strong tactical implementation, which translates broad goals into concrete follow-up actions. Third, an interaction-based pathway combines traceable task design with longer political tenure, suggesting that accountability and leadership continuity reinforce one another in sustaining implementation and preventing policy drift.

This paper contributes to research on temporal governance, policy design, and implementation by demonstrating that long-term goal achievement does not depend on a single optimal model, but on multiple configurations in which design and implementation conditions can substitute for or complement one another.

Authors

• Siyang Jiang, Tsinghua University
  Presenting Author

• Xue Gao, Florida State University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Fang Zhang, Tsinghua University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author