Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Policies Taking Off: Inventory and Diffusion of SAF Incentives in the US

• In Event: Designing for Diffusion: Opportunities and Barriers in Energy Transition

Abstract

As the aviation sector faces mounting pressure to decarbonize, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as a promising alternative to conventional jet fuel. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the policy landscape shaping SAF deployment across the United States, drawing on policy innovation and diffusion theory to understand the existing spread of policy designs and their relationship to adoption mechanisms.

We construct a federal- and state-level policy inventory of SAF incentives, then calculate and map effective dollar-per-gallon values for each policy (where possible) to facilitate comparisons of incentive magnitudes and spatial variation. Additionally, policies are categorized by and mapped according to their incentivization mechanisms (including direct subsidies, market-based instruments, and feedstock/production supports), and analyzed in terms of which elements of the value chain they target. Findings in this area show significant variation in the scale and design of incentives offered, identifying and discussing the implications of regional clusters and early adopters.

In addition to the policy inventory, panel data was collected for numerous state-level characteristics with the potential to influence the likelihood of incentive adoption, including but not limited to socioeconomic features, prevailing political ideologies, the size of the airline industry, and relationships with other states (such as geographic neighbors and regions, ideological peers, and census groups). R-based logistic regression models are applied to investigate the relative significance of these internal state characteristics and external pressures influencing adoption, which are then connected to and analyzed in terms of diffusion mechanisms including emulation, competition, and learning as well as policy design and innovation frameworks.

The state-focused diffusion and innovation analysis is complemented with a discussion of the changing landscape of SAF federal incentives, from the relative optimism of the Biden-era policies to the clean energy cuts and rollbacks of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives that have been characteristic of the Trump administration. Analysis considers the relatively recent emergence of commercially viable SAF technologies, and thus the potential for these incentive changes to significantly impact the cost and deployment trajectories of SAFs.

By combining incentive valuation and mapping with policy diffusion models, this study offers insights into how incentive magnitude, design, and context shape policy adoption and SAF deployment, with broader implications for understanding innovation-driven policy diffusion in hard-to-decarbonize sectors.

Author

• riley chodak, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Presenting Author