Disrupted Learning: The Effects of School Transfers on Academic Progress

• In Event: School Choice, Student Mobility, and the Geography of Opportunity

Abstract

Introduction/Background 
Student mobility across schools is an increasingly common feature of the U.S. education system, and is closely tied to questions of equity, school choice, and resource allocation (Ashby, 2010; Welsh, 2017). Yet researchers and policymakers continue to disagree on whether student mobility is ultimately beneficial or harmful (Grigg, 2012). Building on prior work distinguishing structural (planned based on school grade structure) and nonstructural moves (Grigg, 2012; Guarino et al., 2025; Min, 2022; Schwartz, et al, 2017), this study examines differences by school sector and persistence of effects of midyear moves, with the aim of providing more precise evidence on how the timing and context of transfers shape students' learning trajectories.

Research Questions
In our study we ask and answer the following research questions:
1) What are the effects of different types of student mobility, including midyear, nonstructural summer, and structural (promotional) moves, on students’ academic outcomes?
2) Do the short-run effects of midyear transfers differ by sector pathway (e.g., public-to-public, Catholic-to-Catholic, and charter-to-charter)?
3) Among students who experience midyear moves, what are the longer-run achievement effects over multiple subsequent terms?

Data
The analysis draws on longitudinal student-level data from NWEA MAP Growth assessments covering the 2017-2018 through 2022-2023 school years. The dataset includes over 49 million observations from more than six million students in grades K-8, spanning public, charter, and Catholic schools. Among all midyear moves, 91% were public-to-public transfers, 7% charter-to-charter, and 2% Catholic-to-Catholic.

Research Design and Methods
We estimate the effects of different types of student mobility on academic achievement using student fixed-effects models, which leverage within-student variation over time to strengthen causal interpretation. To examine dynamics, we incorporate lagged mobility indicators and implement event-study difference-in-differences designs with staggered timing. We further refine identification by restricting the sample to students experiencing at most one midyear move and by allowing for non-flat counterfactual trends based on pre-move trajectories. Robustness checks follow Rambachan and Roth (2023), allowing for bounded deviations from projected trends.

Results/Findings
Our findings show that midyear transfers are associated with meaningful declines in achievement, ranging from −0.05 to −0.02 standard deviations in math and −0.03 to −0.02 in ELA. In contrast, structural and nonstructural summer moves have little to no impact on achievement. Heterogeneity analyses reveal larger negative effects for same-sector midyear transfers (e.g., public-to-public and Catholic-to-Catholic) compared to charter-to-charter transfers. Event-study results indicate that midyear moves lead to an immediate drop in achievement, followed by a partial rebound and then persistent negative effects over time, with more pronounced patterns in the post-COVID period.

Conclusion/Implication
These findings have direct implications for education policy. Because midyear transfers are often associated with instability and constrained choice, their persistent negative effects suggest that students experiencing such moves may require targeted academic and institutional support. More broadly, the results underscore the importance of designing school choice and mobility policies that account for the timing and context of transfers, rather than treating all mobility as equivalent, in order to reduce disruptions and promote more equitable student outcomes.

Author

• Wei Gao, Boston College
  Presenting Author