Poster #140 - Crisis Without Conversion: The Effects of Natural Disaster Exposure on Political Ideology and Public Trust

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

As climate-related natural disasters grow more frequent and severe, they increasingly test democratic governance by exposing citizens to environmental risk, institutional capacity, and political conflict over climate policy. In an era when democracy is widely perceived to be under threat, understanding how citizens politically interpret crisis experiences is critical. This study asks: How does exposure to a sudden natural disaster affect citizens’ political ideology and trust in public institutions, and under what conditions do these effects emerge? Drawing on an original survey of Midwestern residents conducted after the 2020 Midwest derecho, a rare and highly destructive windstorm, this paper examines the political consequences of large-scale environmental shocks.A common theoretical expectation is that natural disasters may shift citizens toward more liberal ideological positions. This expectation rests on the argument that direct exposure to extreme weather can heighten awareness of climate risk, reduce skepticism toward climate change, and increase support for government intervention. These positions are more closely associated with liberal ideology, particularly given partisan divides over climate policy. Building on this logic, disasters are often theorized as potential catalysts for ideological updating or political realignment.To test this hypothesis, using survey data (N = 820) collected across affected Midwestern counties, the study assesses whether proximity to damage, perceived energy resilience, and personal loss predict changes in (a) political ideology and (b) trust in local institutions that provide energy service. Preliminary analyses suggest that while disasters intensify citizens’ attention to institutional performance, they do not necessarily disrupt stable ideological identities. Specifically, first, political ideology remains remarkably stable, with no evidence that disaster exposure shifts ideological self-placement. Second, natural disaster exposure is positively associated with trust in energy service providers, including perceptions of competence, fairness, and benevolence. Third, the trust-enhancing effects of disaster exposure are conditional; they are significantly larger among respondents who perceive energy resilience governance as procedurally and distributively fair, and among those experiencing more severe material losses.These findings contribute to debates on democracy under threat by showing that crises do not uniformly erode or transform political beliefs. Instead, they reveal how resilient public service delivery can sustain institutional legitimacy under stress. As climate risks intensify, the democratic challenge may lie less in ideological conversion than in rebuilding trust through fair and effective crisis governance.

Author

• Guimin Zheng, Iowa State University
  Presenting Author