Convictions and Family Stability: Evidence from Randomized Judge Assignment in Tampa Bay, FL

• In Event: Intergenerational Consequences of Incarceration and Violence: Racial Disparities and Family Mobility

Abstract

Criminal punishment in the United States is experienced collectively—both by the sanctioned individual and by their family members--even though the system purports to only sanction those who have been found guilty. While prior research has evaluated the individual effects of criminal sanctions on the children and relationship partners of the sanctioned individuals, we understand little about how these sanctions affect the stability and persistence of familial relationships. Using linked administrative data on criminal sentencing in Tampa Bay, FL, implementing a judge-leniency design for causal identification, and by tracking familial relationships overtime through restricted-access U.S. Census files, we can compare whether sanctioned individuals continue to live in the same households as their intimate partners over a long period of time. We estimate the effect of misdemeanour convictions relative to deferred adjudication (a finding of guilt without a conviction) on the long-term stability of familial relationships. We test for this with outcome variables reflecting marriage, cohabitation, and child placement, taking advantage of the as-good-as-random assignment of judges to compare outcomes when individuals who would otherwise face conviction instead face a less punitive outcome. We expect that convictions will disrupt family relationships with convicted individuals being less likely to be married/cohabitating, remain with the same pre-treatment partner, and remain in the same household as their children, even after any period of incarceration ends. We also predict heterogeneity by gender, with convictions of women being particularly disruptive for intimate partner and parent-child relationships, especially if childcare and child custody is more likely to be maintained when the male partner is incarcerated (relative to the female partner). Our work speaks to the need for better understanding of the consequences of noncarceral outcomes for nonviolent offenses and misdemeanors. By limiting convictions and the consequences for housing and employment, deferred adjudication can support family wellbeing while maintaining public safety.

Author

• Kaitlyn Margaret Sims, University of Denver
  Presenting Author