College or No College? A Regression-Based Analysis of CTE Participation and Bachelor's Degree Aspirations

• In Event: Sustainable Secondary CTE Systems: Evidence on Postsecondary Pathways, Teacher Retention, and Local Labor Markets

Abstract

Aspirations about enrolling in a bachelor's degree program are central to high school students’ postsecondary trajectories. Career and technical education (CTE) has been lauded for positive outcomes—increased high school graduation rates, lower dropout rates, and easier labor market entry—yet debate remains about its potential role in tracking lower-SES, lower-achieving students away from higher education and into lower-paying jobs. The Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act of 2006 (Perkins IV) rebranded CTE around college and career readiness, renewing the need to assess whether CTE supports or undermines students' aspirations for pursuing four-year degrees.

Using the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09), a nationally representative sample of over 21,000 ninth-graders across 944 schools, this study offers evidence on how CTE credits earned during high school relate to students’ certainty of pursuing a bachelor’s degree. Linear probability models show the relationship is not uniform: students earning 1-7 credits in CTE are not statistically distinctive from non-participants, but students with the highest intensity (8-12 credits) are 6.6 percentage points less likely to be certain about pursuing a bachelor’s degree. Disaggregating by subject area shows that this relationship is not evenly spread: of the ten CTE concentration areas, only Agriculture and Natural Resources and Mechanical Repair and Operation remain associated with lower certainty of pursuing a bachelor’s degree. These findings suggest any negative association between CTE and four-year degree aspirations is concentrated among the most intensive participants and some trade/vocational-oriented fields, with implications for college counseling and pathway design.

Author

• Sakina Sahabi, University at Albany
  Presenting Author