Long-term follow-up of participants in the PROMISE Demonstration

• In Event: Novel Approaches to Supporting Employment for Individuals with Disabilities

Abstract

This paper examines early adulthood outcomes (ages 18–30) for individuals who received Supplemental Security Income (SSI) as children or youth and estimates the long-term impacts of two major federal demonstrations of transition intervention services: the Promoting Readiness of Minors in SSI (PROMISE) and Youth Transition Demonstration (YTD). Youth receiving SSI face substantial barriers to education and employment and are at high risk of long-term reliance on disability benefits, making the transition to adulthood a critical policy window. PROMISE and YTD were both large, randomized controlled demonstrations involving thousands of youth. They were focused on interventions designed to increase employment and financial independence as youth and young adults entered their working years, and in subsequent years.

Prior evaluations found modest improvements in employment-related outcomes within three to five years of enrollment. However, these evaluations did not assess whether impacts persisted into adulthood, nor how outcomes evolved through macroeconomic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Using linked SSA administrative data, this study follows participants for up to 15 years after enrollment, tracking employment, earnings, and participation in SSI and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). The analysis estimates long-term program impacts using intent-to-treat methods and examines whether early gains were sustained, faded, or reemerged over time. In addition, the paper assesses how outcomes changed during and after the COVID-19 period and whether program participation enhanced resilience to economic disruption. 

By extending follow-up well beyond prior studies, this paper provides new evidence on the durability of transition-age interventions for youth with disabilities. It also situates findings across two major federal demonstrations with similar service models, offering insights into the long-term returns to substantial public investments in employment and support services. The results have important implications for designing policies to promote employment and reduce long-term program dependence among individuals with disabilities, as well as for forecasting future demand for SSA programs.

Author

• Ankita Patnaik, Mathematica
  Presenting Author