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Climate change beliefs and risk perceptions have attracted growing attention as psychological factors shaping public responses to environmental risks, yet their role in mental health inequality remains underexplored. These concerns are especially salient for vulnerable populations facing disproportionate exposure to extreme weather and climate risks and mental health burdens. This study investigates whether and how climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are associated with mental health outcomes, how social vulnerability shapes these constructs, and whether they operate as distinct mediating pathways linking social vulnerability to mental health inequality.
Drawing on Construal Level Theory, climate change beliefs are conceptualized as abstract, high-level construals, while risk perceptions reflect more concrete, low-level construals. The study employs a largeale quantitative design using county-level data from all 3,144 U.S. counties in 2022, integrating multiple national datasets, the CDC PLACES dataset, the CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index, and Yale Climate Opinion Maps. Structural equation modeling estimates both direct and indirect effects of key social vulnerability indicators, poverty, disability, low educational attainment, and lack of health insurance, on five adverse mental health outcomes: depression, frequent mental distress, cognitive disability, short sleep, and independent living difficulty, with climate change construals serving as mediators.
Results indicate that structural vulnerability is the dominant predictor of mental health disparities. Poverty and disability exert the strongest direct effects across all outcomes. Climate change beliefs and risk perceptions partially mediated the relationship between social vulnerability and mental health, with patterns varying by outcome. Belief-based pathways (high-level construal) were more consistent and generally associated with lower mental health burden, suggesting that abstract cognitive framing may buffer the psychological impact of environmental risk. Risk perception pathways (low-level construal), by contrast, showed more heterogeneous effects and, in some cases, attenuated the adverse impact of poverty on mental health, potentially reflecting adaptive coping processes.
These findings establish climate perceptions as an additional psychological pathway through which social disadvantage shapes mental health inequality, while underscoring the primacy of structural vulnerability in climate-related mental health policy. Addressing this inequality requires a multidimensional approach. Most fundamentally, policymakers should prioritize structural interventions targeting socioeconomic vulnerability, particularly by expanding healthcare access among disadvantaged populations. Beyond this, the findings point to the value of targeted communication strategies that move past general climate awareness. Distinguishing between abstract beliefs and concrete personal risk perceptions may help public health frameworks better tailor psychological support and resilience-building efforts. Finally, embedding climate-related psychological factors into broader public health and resilience strategies could strengthen the effectiveness of interventions for vulnerable populations and enhance community resilience to climate-related stressors.