Place and the Persistence of Poverty: Trends in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Communities

• In Event: Place, Poverty, and Safety Net Assistance across State and Local Contexts

Abstract

This paper examines geographic variation in persistent spells of poverty at the household level using the 1968 to 2019 survey waves of the nationally representative Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Persistent spells of household poverty are defined as those where the household experiences more than five years in poverty. A relative poverty measure is used in this paper, calculated using the NBER TAXSIM v32 and the Current Population Survey (CPS). For each year of PSID data from 1994 to 2019, TAXSIM is used to estimate household post-tax and transfer adjusted income. The adjusted income total for each PSID household is then divided by 50 percent of the median post-tax and transfer household income according to the CPS, adjusted for household size. Analysis focuses on households with a persistent poverty spell that began before 1994, as well as new spells that occur from 1994 onward. Households are sorted into urban, suburban, and rural counties using Rural-Urban Continuum Codes from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.Initial results indicate that about one-half of all PSID households in persistent poverty from 1994 to 2019 were located in urban counties, with one-quarter living in suburban and rural counties, respectively. Consistent with the prior literature around place and poverty, Black households have much higher rates of persistent poverty in urban and suburban areas compared to White households. I also find that the highest percentage of households in persistent poverty are in rural communities in the South and North Central regions. In these two regions, poverty rates have remained high since the 1990s. Persistent poverty is comparatively low across community types in the Northeast and West regions, but has increased in recent decades. Findings from this work should inform both place-based policies to address poverty, but also efforts to deepen understanding of how place shapes household outcomes and mobility.

Author

• Michael A Schultz, University of Washington
  Presenting Author