From Rebate to Regulation: Evaluating Non-Functional Turf Removal in Southern California

• In Event: State Policy, Local Water Systems: Affordability, Conservation, and Infrastructure Finance

Abstract

Across the arid West, non-functional turf (NFT) is moving from a niche conservation target to a major policy issue. California’s AB 1572 phases in a prohibition on irrigating NFT with potable water on commercial, industrial, and institutional (CII) properties, while Nevada and Colorado have also adopted major restrictions on non-functional turf. Yet despite the growing policy momentum, there is still limited empirical evidence on how effective NFT removal is in practice, especially in the CII sector. Most existing evidence has centered on residential turf-conversion programs, particularly in Las Vegas, leaving an important gap for policymakers now considering broader mandates, compliance programs, and public funding for landscape conversion.

This paper helps fill that gap by evaluating the Eastern Municipal Water District’s NFT rebate program for CII landscape accounts that rely on potable water for irrigation. We combine monthly billing records, landscape area data, and rebate-program participation records from 2011 to 2024. The analysis covers 2,841 CII landscape accounts and 111 completed turf replacement projects. To estimate program impacts, we use a matched comparison design and panel regressions with customer-by-month and month-by-year fixed effects, allowing us to compare participants with similar nonparticipants while accounting for persistent customer differences and common time shocks.

We find that NFT conversion is associated with meaningful reductions in water use and water bills for participating CII customers. The estimated conservation effects are economically significant and suggest that larger or deeper conversions can generate greater savings, likely because they are more often paired with broader irrigation changes rather than simple turf removal alone. At the same time, the cost-effectiveness of NFT conversion depends heavily on program design, including rebate levels, landscape lifespan, conversion costs, replacement landscape type, and the value of avoided future water purchases or supply expansion. The analysis therefore suggests both promise and caution: NFT programs can generate substantial long-run water savings, but estimated net benefits are sensitive to assumptions and local context.

The implications extend beyond one Southern California district. For California, the findings provide early evidence relevant to implementing AB 1572 and to designing compliance support, rebates, and technical assistance for affected properties. For other western states and utilities considering NFT restrictions, the results suggest that policy success will depend not only on mandating removal but also on how agencies structure incentives and local water availability. More broadly, the paper shows that as western water policy shifts from voluntary conservation to regulatory transformation, better evidence on real-world effectiveness will be essential for designing cost-effective outdoor water policy.

Author

• Mehdi Nemati, University of California, Riverside
  Presenting Author