Beyond the Early Years: Long-Term Effects of California's Paid Family Leave on Mothers' Employment and Earnings

• In Event: Paid Leave Across the States: Access, Utilization, and Employment Outcomes

Abstract

Although California's Paid Family Leave (CA-PFL) — the nation's first state-level comprehensive paid leave policy — has been in effect for over two decades, relatively few studies have examined its long-term effects. Existing research has focused primarily on mothers exposed to the policy immediately after its enactment (Bailey et al., 2025), leaving important questions about the policy's sustained impacts and whether its effects have evolved over time as the program has become more established.

Using 2000–2024 American Community Survey data and a triple-differences approach, we examine the long-term effects of CA-PFL on maternal labor supply and earnings. Our identification strategy compares changes in outcomes between mothers with young children and childless women in California relative to the same comparison in states without paid leave, before and after the policy's implementation. This approach allows us to isolate the causal effects of CA-PFL from broader trends in maternal employment.

We contribute to the literature in two three ways. First, we track how mothers' labor supply and earnings evolve as their youngest child ages, providing new evidence on how long the employment benefits of paid leave persist beyond the post-childbirth. Second, we estimate effects for later cohorts of mothers who gave birth well after the policy had become established, allowing us to assess whether the impacts of paid leave grow as programs mature and awareness, take-up, and employer adaptation increase over time. Third, we estimate the effects by race and ethnicity, as well as citizenship status, providing new evidence on whether the long-term benefits of paid leave are equitably distributed across demographic groups. 

Our findings indicate that increases in mothers' employment and hours worked persist until their youngest child reaches ages 6 to 7, suggesting that paid leave facilitates a sustained attachment to the labor force during the early child-rearing years. Furthermore, the effects of CA-PFL appear larger for later cohorts of mothers, suggesting that the benefits of paid leave programs may grow over time as they become more deeply embedded in workplace norms and institutional practices.

Author

• Jiyoon Kim, Bryn Mawr College
  Presenting Author