We’re Building Something Here: Reducing Gun Violence Without Exacerbating the Harms of Policing in Baltimore

• In Event: Reducing Homicide and Gun Violence: Evidence on Schools, Jobs, and Community Strategies

Abstract

The rate of Americans shot and killed in 2021 reached a near record high. Much of this gun violence is concentrated in a handful of disadvantaged neighborhoods in U.S. cities. We report on a focused strategy to reduce neighborhood gun violence. This strategy—which directs police and social service resources to a small number of people thought to be actively engaged in gun violence—was implemented in an area with a per capita rate of homicides and shootings among the very highest in the U.S.: Baltimore’s Western police district. In the 18 months after its introduction, we estimate that the strategy reduced the rate of people shot or killed in the Western district by roughly a third, and carjackings by almost 40%, with no evidence of spillovers to other parts of Baltimore. Importantly, despite the central role played by police in this intervention, these large reductions in gun violence were not accompanied by a broad increase in arrests. We continue to investigate the mechanisms through which this strategy affected gun violence. Preliminary evidence suggests that targeted enforcement activity may have played a key role. 

Beyond the scope of the paper, the City of Baltimore reduced its homicide rate from eight straight years of 330 annually to a dramatically lower 130 annually in 2025.

This paper is of direct relevance to mayors and other policymakers who are interested in reducing violence in a specific area or city in the short term. The panel presentation will touch upon the quantitative and qualitative research conducted as part of the evaluation, but will also discuss the process of assisting the city in implementing its strategy, which was undertaken by a team working independently and in parallel of the main evaluation team. The panel discussion will also talk about the feasibility of implementing a similar strategy in another city, and what we know about the overall evidence base around these types of strategies.

Author

• Ben Struhl, University of Pennsylvania
  Presenting Author