Poster #138 - Path dependent in crisis? Comparing social safety net responses to COVID-19 across Europe and Asia

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

Do welfare states follow path-dependent trajectories when social safety nets come under crisis pressure, or does crisis create openings for institutional innovation? Existing research on policy responses to crisis has largely overlooked social safety nets, despite low-income populations facing the greatest vulnerabilities during crises. This study addresses two research questions: (1) How did social safety nets change across European and East Asian economies during and after COVID-19? (2) What factors explain the divergent patterns of these changes across differently structured welfare regimes? 

This study analyzes social safety net responses to COVID-19 across 27 economies in Europe and East Asia through two dimensions: expansion in benefit generosity (i.e., the magnitude of change), and policy layering (i.e., the mode of change). Changes in benefit generosity are captured using two indicators focusing on families with no earnings: (1) changes in benefits received by all types of families, reflecting overall generosity, and (2) the benefit gap between families with children and single-adult households, reflecting the relative emphasis on family support. The data are constructed using the Model Family Approach. Policy layering is measured by the proportion of new social protection programs adopted during COVID-19, derived from the ILO Social Protection Monitor. 

Cluster analysis of changes in benefit generosity before, during, and after the crisis reveals four trajectories: temporary expansion (n=7), stable adaptation (n=16), retrenchment (n=3), and one delayed surge outlier. The benefit gap between families with children and single-adult families remained small or gradually narrowed in most economies, while Japan stands out in simultaneously expanding overall benefit generosity and widening support for families with children. Cross-classifying these trajectories with high versus low policy layering produces four distinct change patterns: stable adaptation, path-dependent expansion, crisis-driven layering, and transformative expansion. East Asian economies are uniformly high in policy layering, diverging only in generosity. Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong temporarily expanded benefits, while Singapore shows stable adaptation. European societies encompass diverse change patterns ranging from stable adaptation to transformative expansion. These divergent patterns are attributed to differences in welfare regimes, pandemic severity, and levels of economic development. 

This study contributes to the understanding of welfare states’ crisis responses through benefit expansion and policy layering, engaging with debates on path dependency. The findings suggest that institutional legacies shape but do not fully determine crisis responses. Focusing on social safety nets, this study also provides comparative insights into welfare states’ redistributive commitment across European and East Asian regimes.

Authors

• Qian Zhang, University of Hong Kong
  Presenting Author

• Peng Chenhong, The University of Hong Kong
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Julia Shu-Huah Wang, National Taiwan University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author