Punctuated Stability? Expenditure Allocation Patterns in Regional Food Banks

• In Event: Strengthening Supports, Identifying Gaps: How Place and Policy Shape Access to Human Services

Abstract

Regional food banks serve as critical safety net organizations, yet little is known about how they allocate scarce resources across competing programs and vulnerable populations over time. This study applies Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) to nonprofit expenditure decisions, testing whether food bank spending patterns exhibit extended periods of incremental adjustment punctuated by sharp reallocations following major disruptions to food supply and demand (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993, 2009). While PET has been established as a “general empirical law” in public budgeting (Jones et al., 2009), its application to nonprofit resource allocation remains largely unexplored (Lecy & Van Slyke, 2013; Mitchell, 2014), which becomes a significant gap given that food banks face institutional frictions similar to those theorized in PET, including program commitments, restricted funding, staff specialization, and infrastructure constraints (Froelich, 1999; Pfeffer & Salancik, 2003).

The study uses a mixed-methods design. The quantitative component draws on IRS Form 990 filings (2012–2021) for nine Feeding America–partnered regional food banks in New York State, analyzing year-over-year percentage changes in total revenue and expenditure. Distributions are tested for leptokurtosis, PET’s statistical signature (Jones et al., 2003), using excess kurtosis, Shapiro-Wilk, and Jarque-Bera tests, with punctuations identified at changes exceeding two standard deviations from the mean. The qualitative component consists of semi-structured interviews with financial decision-makers at participating food banks, designed to contextualize quantitative patterns and illuminate mechanisms behind stability and disruption in spending priorities.

Preliminary results provide initial support for PET-consistent patterns. Quantitative analysis reveals punctuated expenditure changes concentrated around major external disruptions, consistent with focusing event theory (Birkland, 1997). Interview findings reinforce these patterns, as decision-makers describe long periods of budgetary consistency maintained through program commitments, strategic planning cycles, and diversified revenue streams (Froelich, 1999), punctuated by rapid reallocations during crises. External shocks, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and recent federal funding volatility, drove the most significant spending shifts, while restricted grant funding and organizational commitments constrained reallocation even when needs changed. Notably, crises simultaneously increased demand and attracted donor support, enabling reallocations that might otherwise be infeasible (Simo & Bies, 2007). These findings suggest food bank expenditure dynamics follow attention-driven patterns consistent with PET, with political salience and crisis visibility shaping which programs gain priority during disruptions (Schneider & Ingram, 1993; Kingdon, 2003). This study extends the PET framework to nonprofit organizational outputs beyond government budgets and offers practical insights for food banks navigating program tradeoffs under resource constraints.

Author

• Yuwei Zhang, Syracuse University
  Presenting Author