Poster #116 - Foster Care Trajectories and High School Graduation in NYC

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

Building on prior CIDI research, which identified educational and foster care characteristics associated with high school graduation, this report extends the analysis to examine how the temporal dimensions of foster care experiences, specifically their timing, sequence, and duration, are associated with educational attainment. This new study aims to move beyond static factors to illuminate how the dynamic patterns of these experiences shape a youth's educational trajectory. The purpose is to understand these patterns so that New York City can refine its efforts and continue to increase the number of high school graduates.

The sample consisted of youth in NYC Administration for Children’s Services (ACS) foster care who were placed for a minimum of seven days during high school, attended a high school in New York City Public Schools (NYCPS)  for at least one year, had a known graduation status, and were able to be followed for six years after starting 9th grade. This resulted in a sample of 5,859 students from the 2011 through 2018 9th grade entry year cohorts who graduated between the 2014-2015 and 2023-2024 academic years. 

Sequence analysis was employed to visualize, describe, and group patterns of foster care experiences over the six years following high school entry. Each student was assigned a mutually exclusive state for each month, beginning in September of 9th grade and continuing for 72 months (six years), defined by the students’ type of foster care placement or discharge status.  Demographic and educational characteristics were examined across clusters to identify trajectories associated with successful graduation.

The results of this study align with previous findings revealing a strong association between a student's foster care experiences and their educational outcomes. Clusters that include kinship care and discharges to KinGAP and adoption were associated with higher graduation rates. Conversely, clusters that include residential care with reunification during high school and foster home discharged to APPLA were associated with lower graduation rates. It is critical to interpret these findings as descriptive patterns, not as proof that the placement or discharge type itself causes the outcome. Rather, these placement and discharge categories serve as indicators of broader systemic and individual factors at play. The clusters associated with low graduation rates suggest an interplay of external challenges, including the impacts of poverty and racism on access to resources. In addition, individual-level adversities such as behavioral and mental health challenges along with inconsistent family and educational support shape a student's path to graduation. The path to improved educational outcomes, therefore, is not simply to change a student's placement or discharge goal but to establish a unified approach with a cross-agency  response that addresses the systemic issues at their core.  A key component is ensuring access to an array of financial, mental health, and educational services that follow the child, whether they are at home, in foster care, or after discharge.

Authors

• Jessica Sell, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Presenting Author

• Oliver Ponce, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Marya Kuklick, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Nebahat Noyan, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Glendalis Perez, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Natalie S Brown, Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence
  Non-Presenting Co-Author