Understanding Career and Technical Education Teacher Turnover: Evidence from Massachusetts

• In Event: Policy impacts on the K12 Teacher Workforce

Abstract

Introduction.
Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs have been shown to be effective at preparing students for in-demand careers and (under the right conditions) to improve graduation rates, labor market outcomes, and opportunities for students from disadvantaged backgrounds (Bishop & Mane, 2004; Brunner et al., 2023; Dougherty, 2016). However, the CTE teacher workforce is not structured to support program needs. Teacher preparation programs are shrinking, shortages are common across fields and states (Sutcher et al., 2019), and high-demand programs struggle to find and keep qualified teachers (Heubeck, 2025; Wilson, 2022). Unlike most academic teachers, many CTE teachers come from industry and hold skills that transfer directly to private-sector jobs, often at much higher pay (Kistler et al., 2024). This creates a retention challenge that differs sharply from what other teachers face (Ingersoll, 2001; Mobley, 1977). Yet research on CTE teacher turnover remains limited, with most studies focused on a single career area, a single state, or one-time survey data (Dainty et al., 2011; Hasselquist & Graves, 2020; Park & Johnson, 2019).
This study asks how turnover patterns differ between CTE and non-CTE teachers, and what teacher- and assignment-level characteristics most strongly predict turnover risk within the CTE workforce.
Methods.
We apply survival analysis methods to 13 years of Massachusetts administrative data (2011–2024), covering 83,706 non-CTE and 12,914 CTE secondary teachers. Using both complementary log–log discrete-time hazard models and Cox proportional hazards models, we examine how turnover varies by CTE teaching intensity, certification status, career cluster demand classification, and demographic characteristics. Period-specific models assess robustness across distinct policy and labor market contexts, including the COVID-19 pandemic.
Results.
Results reveal critical heterogeneity within the CTE workforce. Teachers concentrated in high-demand fields (health science, IT, manufacturing, STEM) faced higher turnover than those in lower-demand fields. CTE certification was not uniformly protective. Its association with retention was concentrated among teachers most fully embedded in CTE work. Teachers whose assignments mixed CTE and non-CTE coursework had lower turnover hazards than never-CTE teachers, while teachers whose careers were always fully CTE had the highest exit risk. Among always-full-CTE teachers, certification was linked to a substantially lower turnover hazard, while it showed no significant association for lower-intensity CTE teachers.
Policy Implications.
These findings have direct implications for education workforce policy. Broad retention strategies are unlikely to serve all CTE teachers equally. The evidence points most clearly to fully-CTE teachers in high-demand fields as the group under greatest retention pressure, and to certification as a lever whose impact is strongest for this population. Policymakers should consider targeted investments in certification pathways, licensure supports, and induction programs for fully-CTE teachers, while also exploring whether mixed CTE/non-CTE staffing structures may support longer teaching careers.

Author

• Xiaohan Qian, Boston College
  Presenting Author