Truth in Sentencing: Recidivism, Labor Force Re-entry and the Well-Being of Children and Families

• In Event: Economics of Crime: Arrest & Sentencing

Abstract

By the early 21st century, more than 30 states, including Wisconsin, had adopted Truth in Sentencing (TIS) laws. A form of determinate sentencing, TIS sought to provide “certainty in sentencing” by reducing or eliminating parole, establishing fixed release dates, and in some cases lengthening prison sentences. While these reforms were often motivated by concerns about transparency, consistency, and public safety, they also represented a fundamental shift in how criminal sentences translate into actual time served. Despite their widespread adoption, there remains limited causal evidence on how TIS policies affect not only sentencing outcomes but also measures of reintegration and family well-being. This project examines the impact of Wisconsin’s TIS law, which took effect in December 1999, on sentencing lengths, recidivism, and labor-market re-entry among formerly incarcerated individuals. To identify the causal effects of TIS, I employ a sharp regression discontinuity (RD) design that exploits the precise policy cutoff of December 31, 1999, which determines whether an individual was sentenced under the pre- or post-TIS regime. By comparing individuals whose offense dates fall just before and just after this threshold, the design isolates plausibly exogenous variation in sentencing exposure. This approach first allows for a clean estimate of the reform’s impact on sentence length and time served. It then uses this variation to examine effects on recidivism, providing insight into whether longer, more certain sentences deter future criminal behavior or, alternatively, hinder successful reintegration. A central contribution of the project is the use of rich Wisconsin administrative data that links individuals across multiple state agencies. These data include detailed criminal justice records, earnings and employment information, and program participation, allowing me to follow individuals over time and observe outcomes both during and after incarceration. Importantly, the data also enables linkage to family members within the same household, making it possible to examine how policy-induced changes in incarceration exposure affect broader family dynamics. Building on this feature, the project extends the RD framework to study spillover effects on families. By linking individuals to household members, I will examine how exposure to TIS-induced changes in incarceration affects family reliance on safety net programs, as well as children’s educational outcomes, including absenteeism and school performance. These analyses speak to a broader literature on the intergenerational consequences of incarceration and the extent to which sentencing policy shapes inequality beyond the directly affected population. Given the substantial fiscal costs of incarceration and the broader social consequences of criminal justice policy, understanding the effects of TIS is critical. This study contributes to policy debates by providing rigorous causal evidence on how sentencing reforms influence not only punishment severity, but also public safety and family well-being.

Author

• Bezankeng Njinju, University of Wisconsin-Madison
  Presenting Author