Immigration Enforcement and U.S.-Born Mothers’ Labor Supply: Evidence from State Reliance on Immigrant Childcare Workers

• In Event: Supporting Children, Youth, and Families: The Social Safety Net and Student Experiences

Abstract

Immigrants make up a substantial share of the U.S. childcare workforce. The recent intensification of immigration enforcement may therefore spill over to the labor supply of U.S.-born mothers who rely on non-parental childcare. This study examines how the intensified ICE immigration enforcement following President Trump’s 2025 inauguration affected the labor supply of U.S.-born mothers with young children. Exploiting pre-existing cross-state variation in reliance on immigrant childcare workers, measured using the 2022–2024 American Community Survey (ACS), I compare changes in mothers’ labor supply across states after enforcement intensified. Maternal labor supply is measured using monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) data from January 2023 to July 2026.
Results show that employment fell significantly among less-educated U.S.-born mothers after intensification. Furthermore, this negative effect is stronger for mothers who do not live with their spouse and those with children aged zero to two. A triple-differences analysis suggests that this decline in employment operated through the childcare channel. The findings highlight that intensified immigration enforcement limits access to immigrant-provided childcare, often the last resort for disadvantaged U.S.-born mothers who lack suitable alternatives.

Author

• Eunha Kim, Columbia University
  Presenting Author