Where Does It Sting?: The 2025 SNAP Cuts Disaggregated by Stakeholder and State

• In Event: SNAP Program Design: Implications for Participants and Policy

Abstract

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) introduced unprecedented cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). It reduced federal spending through modifications to the program’s benefit calculation, eligibility requirements, and work requirements, while simultaneously shifting a greater share of program costs to states through new matching requirements and increased administrative cost sharing.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that some federal cost savings in this act represent benefit losses borne by SNAP participants, while others represent shifts in administrative expenses borne ultimately by state taxpayers. For Fiscal Year 2028, the first year when key provisions are fully implemented, this study estimates the impact disaggregated by state and for multiple stakeholders: SNAP participants, state taxpayers, food retailers, food manufacturers, and farmers.

We estimated the loss in consumer food spending as a proportion of SNAP benefit cuts scored by CBO, assuming a marginal propensity to consume food out of SNAP benefits of 0.48. Sensitivity analyses consider lower and higher marginal propensities to consume. We allocated the loss of consumer food spending to farmers, food manufacturers, and food retail industry stakeholders in proportion to value added in the Food Dollar data series from USDA’s Economic Research Service.

Reductions in SNAP benefits are estimated at $16.2 billion nationally in 2028, equivalent to $48.0 per capita and $384.6 per SNAP participant. In absolute terms, the largest reductions are concentrated in highly populated states, including California ($2.0 billion), Texas ($1.3 billion), New York ($1.3 billion), and Florida ($1.1 billion). This pattern reflects the distribution of SNAP issuance, with larger states accounting for a greater share of total program benefits.

State taxpayer impacts are estimated at $21.0 billion nationally in 2028, including $18.1 billion from matching requirements and $2.9 billion from administrative cost sharing (Table 2). Food industry stakeholder losses are estimated at $6.4 billion nationally in 2028, including $3.3 billion in retail losses, $1.8 billion in manufacturing losses, and $1.3 billion in farm production losses. In absolute terms, these losses are concentrated in large states, including California ($729.7 million), Texas ($441.0 million), and New York ($334.6 million). However, per capita estimates highlight a distinct pattern driven by state economic structure. States with strong agricultural or food production sectors, such as Nebraska ($63.2 per capita), Iowa ($53.0), and South Dakota ($49.6), experience higher losses per person in the state.

While the impact on farmers and food manufacturers of some administration policies, such as trade policies, has previously been studied, this analysis estimates the loss for these politically powerful stakeholders from an important change in federal nutrition assistance programs. SNAP cuts are widely characterized as losses for low-income food consumers, but there also are notable economic losses for farmers and food industry stakeholders in states that leaned Republican in the 2024 federal election.

Author

• Parke E. Wilde, Tufts University
  Presenting Author