Industry-Recognized Credentials and College-Going: Longitudinal Evidence from Ohio

• In Event: Shaping CTE Pathways: Evidence on Policy Levers from High School to College

Abstract

Career and technical education (CTE) aims to prepare students for both college and careers. This dual objective has drawn attention from policymakers and researchers interested in how CTE shapes students’ transitions from high school to postsecondary education and the labor market. CTE encompasses a range of experiences, including coursework, work-based learning, and industry-recognized credentials (IRC) attainment (Dougherty, 2016). Research on CTE participation broadly points to positive associations with high school achievement, educational persistence, and labor market outcomes (Kemple & Willner, 2008; Stringfield & Stone, 2017; Hemelt et al., 2019). Within this broader landscape, IRCs have become a particularly visible mechanism for linking secondary education to the labor market with more than two-thirds of states providing public funding to support credential earning (AdvanceCTE, 2025). Yet the role of IRCs in shaping students’ postsecondary trajectories remains insufficiently understood.Existing research suggests a complex relationship between IRC attainment and students’ postsecondary outcomes. Although credential attainment has been linked to stronger employment outcomes and earnings (Giani, 2022; Hendricks et al., 2021), it has also been associated with movement away from four-year college pathways and toward sub-baccalaureate routes (Glennie et al., 2021; Glennie et al., 2023). At the same time, relatively little is known about how these patterns vary across IRC clusters, and longitudinal evidence on whether IRC attainment is associated not only with college enrollment but also with postsecondary persistence and degree attainment remains limited. This study contributes to the literature by providing longitudinal evidence on how credential attainment relates to multiple dimensions of postsecondary outcomes, while accounting for variation across credential types and levels of engagement in CTE.We examine how IRC attainment is associated with college-going outcomes using longitudinal administrative data from the Ohio Longitudinal Data Archive (OLDA). These data link high school records to postsecondary enrollment and completion records, allowing us to follow students beyond high school and into higher education. We also examine the role of CTE concentration, defined as completing at least two courses within a single career pathway or program of study. Our analysis focuses on three questions: whether IRC attainment is associated with postsecondary enrollment and degree attainment, whether these relationships differ across IRC clusters and CTE concentration status, and whether IRC attainment is associated with time to degree among students who enroll in postsecondary education.Preliminary findings indicate that IRC attainment during high school is associated with lower rates of postsecondary enrollment and degree attainment. On average, students who earn a credential are less likely to enroll in college and less likely to earn a postsecondary degree than otherwise similar peers. These patterns are more pronounced when credential attainment is paired with CTE concentration. Among students who do pursue postsecondary education, credential earners are also less likely to earn a four-year degree, suggesting that early career-focused experiences may play a role in shaping students’ expectations and educational decision-making. These patterns matter for how policymakers design career-focused pathways, especially when such pathways may redirect students away from four-year college enrollment.

Authors

• Eunji Koh, Johns Hopkins University
  Presenting Author

• Jay Plasman, Johns Hopkins University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author