Grant Aid Effects on High School to College Transitions: Evidence from Arkansas’ ARFuture Grant

• In Event: Shaping CTE Pathways: Evidence on Policy Levers from High School to College

Abstract

More than 400 tuition-free college policies have been implemented across the U.S. as a means of improving college affordability and access (Miller-Adams & Iriti, 2025). Arkansas implemented its statewide ARFuture Grant program in 2017 with the intent of reducing college costs and incentivizing enrollment in defined workforce programs. More specifically, ARFuture is a publicly-funded, last-dollar scholarship for students pursuing in-demand workforce certificates or associate degrees at Arkansas community and technical colleges. We have ample rigorous evidence underscoring the benefits of statewide free college policies on high school completion and college access and success (e.g. Attridge, Carruthers & Welch, 2025; Gurantz, 2020).  Despite the growing trend of tying financial aid eligibility and free college program access to students enrolled in workforce programs, the literature is relatively thin on the causal effects of statewide policies; for instance, an evaluation of Virginia’s G3 program, which similarly limits eligibility to community college students enrolled in high-demand workforce credentials, found that the policy increased student enrollment and credential completion in targeted program areas (Sparks & Bonilla, 2025). This research builds on the prior causal literature on the effects of grant aid on college access and success. 
Using restricted access high school and college transcript records, I employ descriptive and causal analysis to address the following research questions: (1) Did the ARFuture grant influence high school course-taking and completion and public college enrollment in Arkansas? (2) Which students were most likely to participate in the program? Because the program is limited to community college students in state-identified, in-demand workforce programs, I am particularly interested in whether ARFuture altered student enrollment decisions at the extensive and intensive margins (e.g. no college enrollment to college enrollment and four-year college enrollment to two-year college enrollment) and improved CTE pathways from high school to college. I use a series of panel-based estimators to compare course-taking, program selection and enrollment outcomes for cohorts of high school students who were and were not exposed to the ARFuture grant, and disaggregate enrollment effects by whether students were already enrolling in CTE courses and programs while in high school.   
Preliminary findings from event study and DID analyses suggest that ARFuture increased community college enrollment on aggregate, with effects concentrated one to two years after initial policy implementation. Subsequent planned analysis will unpack whether students were more likely to enroll in CTE courses while in high school as well as estimate effects of ARFuture on grant aid, program enrollment and credential completion. This study holds important implications for policymakers as more states consider ways to improve CTE pathways between high school and college.

Author

• Daniel Sparks, University of Arkansas
  Presenting Author