Gaps in State Workforce Priorities, Needs, and Training Programs

• In Event: Closing the Gap: Variations in State Approaches to Postsecondary and Workforce Alignment

Abstract

Background: State policymakers increasingly prioritize aligning postsecondary education and workforce development to meet labor market needs and expand economic mobility. The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) provides a framework for this alignment by requiring states to develop strategic plans identifying in-demand occupations and approve Eligible Training Providers (ETPs) to deliver publicly funded training. However, recent federal changes—including passage of the Bipartisan Workforce Pell Act and reorganization of federal higher education programs—intensify pressure on states to clearly define which credentials and occupations merit public investment. Despite multiple federally mandated planning processes, limited research examines whether WIOA planning effectively aligns training capacity with actual workforce demand.

Research Questions: This study addresses three questions: (1) How do states define "credentials of value" in WIOA plans? (2) Do states accurately identify in-demand occupations in their plans relative to labor market projections? (3) Do ETP programs align with in-demand, high-quality (IDHQ) occupations that WIOA aims to target?

Methods: We conducted a content analysis of all 56 WIOA State Plans submitted for Program Years 2024–2027, coding how states define credentials of value and which occupations they identify as in-demand. We compared plan-defined in-demand occupations to actual state workforce projections using a state-adapted measure derived from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bright Outlook framework. We defined high-quality occupations as those with median wages exceeding MIT Living Wage thresholds for a two-adult, two-child household. We analyzed alignment between in-demand or high-quality occupations (which we refer to as “WIOA-targeted occupations”) and ETP program offerings using both state-administered ETPLs (12 states) and national TrainingProviderResults.gov data covering 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Findings: Results reveal substantial misalignment across all three dimensions. First, only 15 of 56 plans explicitly define "credentials of value," and just eight provide measurable wage-based benchmarks. Second, states systematically underestimate in-demand occupations – often this misalignment stems from WIOA plans not identifying all occupations that workforce projections show as in-demand—including computer occupations, healthcare support roles, and administrative supervisors. Third, only about one-third of WIOA-targeted occupations qualify as both in-demand and high-quality (IDHQ), and just 47 percent of ETP programs train for at least one IDHQ occupation. Training completers fill about14 percent of job openings in IDHQ fields, on average, while some occupations—such as phlebotomists and EMTs—show evidence of overtraining.

Implications: These findings carry significant policy implications as states improve their postsecondary training and workforce development systems to deliver value to students and jobseekers alike. Without clearer definitions of credential value aligned across federal mandates, states cannot effectively direct jobseekers toward credentials yielding strong economic returns. We recommend that federal agencies establish flexible but concrete parameters for operationalizing value, that states narrow WIOA planning to priority IDHQ occupations, and that workforce boards tighten ETP approval mechanisms to assess program-level alignment—not just provider-level quality. Improved data infrastructure connecting education, training, and employment outcomes is essential for evidence-based workforce investment. This research offers a replicable framework for assessing state workforce-education alignment that researchers and policymakers can adapt to evaluate emerging initiatives.

Authors

• Elaine W. Leigh, RAND Corporation
  Presenting Author

• Alexis Gable, RAND Corporation
  Non-Presenting Co-Author