Sustained reduction in housing stock as a long-term effect of repeated disaster exposure

• In Event: Housing policy levers for equitable climate adaptation

Abstract

Sustained reduction in housing stock as a long-term effect of repeated disaster exposure:

Prior research indicates that growth in housing prices, especially home values, can be suppressed for decades after disaster exposure. This is compounded by repeated disaster events and accumulated damage over time, after which many communities never fully recover. In this paper, we ask what mechanisms may drive this long-term suppression of housing price growth, starting with the assumption that prices reflect supply, demand, and the balance of perceived benefits and risks of the places in which people choose to live. Here, we use data on available housing units at the census tract level from the American Community Survey and geospatial data on tornado tracks from NOAA’s Severe Weather GIS database to estimate the long-term causal effect of tornado exposure on housing stock. We compare results by frequency of exposure, by magnitude of the event(s), and by eligibility for federal funding assistance. We find that places experiencing more frequent events see a permanent reduction in housing stock after all expected recovery and rebuilding is complete. We also find that receiving federal funding is somewhat protective of this effect, and that only places which experienced multiple events and had zero disaster declarations during the examined time period saw significant reductions in available housing. When the decrease in housing stock is considered alongside prior results showing suppressed housing price growth, it suggests that demand must also be suppressed in often-exposed areas, possibly due to increased perception of future risk. In the context of climate change and greater frequency and unpredictability of severe weather events, and because disparities in both homeownership and disaster exposure are contributors to wealth inequality in the United States, these results support the need for further research on repeated disaster exposure, risk perception, and the role of disaster recovery policy in preserving household wealth for American families.

Author

• Amy Read, Princeton University
  Presenting Author